{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2199671-f2b3-4fd4-bb14-161f3057152f", "symbol": "TMF", "name": "DIREXION DAILY 20+ YEAR TREASURY BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.174, "architecture_energy": 77.979, "architecture_maturity": 49.385, "architecture_confidence": 81.5, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.86, "rotation_up": 8.96, "upward_expansion": 17.81, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 80.3, "downward_expansion": 95.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.679333, 32.920813, 33.726709, 34.504939 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.43, "trend_reference": 35.606937, "distance_from_trend": -0.117307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.526352, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.632715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160232, "excess_performance": -0.285857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038726, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078783, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.866964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22159682, "relative_activity": 1.156953, "balance": 0.866964, "dry_up": 1.166825, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0609, "annualized_volatility": 0.285753, "from_high_reference": -0.276458, "from_low_reference": 0.040556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.606937, "fair_value_reference": 42.526352, "structural_low": 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-47.158961, "energy": 22.013265, "activity_lines": [ 34.86718, 34.730559, 34.955934, 35.617082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.35, "volume": 16004959, "typical_volume": 20311647.25, "trend": 36.23157, "fair_value": 43.071685, "relative_strength": -18.339475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.405233, "energy": 34.03633, "activity_lines": [ 34.273234, 34.516408, 34.743619, 35.422126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.85, "volume": 17807368, "typical_volume": 19740372.65, "trend": 36.032087, "fair_value": 42.862815, "relative_strength": -21.172555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.100043, "energy": 67.080472, "activity_lines": [ 33.276667, 34.063646, 34.427311, 35.139444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.59, "volume": 33423034, "typical_volume": 19705975.1, "trend": 35.822738, "fair_value": 42.684901, "relative_strength": -24.56303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.792491, "energy": 79.896716, "activity_lines": [ 32.136, 33.390813, 34.023713, 34.788342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.43, "volume": 22159682, "typical_volume": 19153481.65, "trend": 35.606937, "fair_value": 42.526352, "relative_strength": -24.632715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.174472, "energy": 77.978942, "activity_lines": [ 31.679333, 32.920813, 33.726709, 34.504939 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }