{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b21f3fb8-9679-4adc-a05e-d309e3597279", "symbol": "1213", "name": "Naseej International Trading Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.825, "architecture_energy": 37.592, "architecture_maturity": 25.339, "architecture_confidence": 74.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.46, "rotation_up": 14.88, "upward_expansion": 7.1, "deceleration": 51.57, "rotation_down": 63.05, "downward_expansion": 73.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.545333, 23.736364, 23.795286, 23.869613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.629999, "trend_reference": 24.382667, "distance_from_trend": -0.112894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.107907, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.651735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.444886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178192, "excess_performance": -0.146362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112894, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207283, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.651735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.484449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.791877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813848, "relative_activity": 0.446485, "balance": 0.791877, "dry_up": 0.961923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137021, "annualized_volatility": 0.49514, "from_high_reference": -0.798039, "from_low_reference": 0.259672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.382667, "fair_value_reference": 62.107907, "structural_low": 17.171141, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008584, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.034299, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.027939, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.135193, "worst_return": -0.663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.258458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.171046, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.84205, "worst_return": -0.7315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.456614, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.519768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.665752, "worst_return": -0.747184, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064815, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.340985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.531483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 21.757463, "volume": 1317230, "typical_volume": 714529.8, "trend": 23.130316, "fair_value": 52.057269, "relative_strength": -8.416079, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.872444, "energy": 29.858973, "activity_lines": [ 26.273334, 24.729091, 24.330477, 24.610538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.48, "volume": 2643486, "typical_volume": 1731022.75, "trend": 25.689, "fair_value": 62.123859, "relative_strength": -46.895782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.280279, "energy": 24.61607, "activity_lines": [ 26.024667, 24.835455, 24.386096, 24.496667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.43, "volume": 2647830, "typical_volume": 1793950.7, "trend": 25.141333, "fair_value": 62.119638, "relative_strength": -49.996901, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.317797, "energy": 17.857886, "activity_lines": [ 24.907334, 24.556546, 24.234905, 24.286409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.77, "volume": 908368, "typical_volume": 1792026.5, "trend": 24.719, "fair_value": 62.113155, "relative_strength": -48.752936, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.852913, "energy": 23.247369, "activity_lines": [ 23.627333, 24.154728, 24.021, 24.068903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.629999, "volume": 813848, "typical_volume": 1822789.85, "trend": 24.382667, "fair_value": 62.107907, "relative_strength": -48.444886, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.824598, "energy": 37.591669, "activity_lines": [ 22.545333, 23.736364, 23.795286, 23.869613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }