{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b237e714-1f3b-4401-9b2f-08062586d727", "symbol": "HAVISHA", "name": "Sri Havisha Hospitality and Infrastructure Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.315, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.809, "architecture_energy": 18.569, "architecture_maturity": 55.479, "architecture_confidence": 83.83, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.73, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 16.58, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 28.73, "downward_expansion": 61.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.31, 1.282182, 1.359905, 1.399355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.46, "trend_reference": 1.465, "distance_from_trend": -0.003413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.108654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.920441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146199, "excess_performance": -0.10249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146199, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 842236, "relative_activity": 2.344179, "balance": 0.939892, "dry_up": 1.151937, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116965, "annualized_volatility": 0.535499, "from_high_reference": -0.396694, "from_low_reference": 0.417476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.465, "fair_value_reference": 2.108654, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.017474, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.400862, "worst_return": -0.19883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.010258, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.241379, "worst_return": -0.37037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078889, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089829, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.137931, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128367, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034043, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140351, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186992, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.75, "volume": 105447, "typical_volume": 165913.4, "trend": 1.838333, "fair_value": 1.769231, "relative_strength": -20.156628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"energy": 71.732536, "activity_lines": [ 1.291333, 1.377273, 1.438286, 1.482581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.12, "volume": 760308, "typical_volume": 327832.95, "trend": 1.54, "fair_value": 2.120962, "relative_strength": -33.907066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.692972, "energy": 81.888727, "activity_lines": [ 1.222667, 1.318364, 1.405571, 1.454108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.21, "volume": 466376, "typical_volume": 341900.6, "trend": 1.517333, "fair_value": 2.117179, "relative_strength": -28.236776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.174958, "energy": 72.919563, "activity_lines": [ 1.208667, 1.284545, 1.38419, 1.432817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.23, "volume": 158301, "typical_volume": 340231.8, "trend": 1.495333, "fair_value": 2.113526, "relative_strength": -24.590582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.852961, "energy": 64.963525, "activity_lines": [ 1.211333, 1.260909, 1.366333, 1.41428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.28, "volume": 188597, "typical_volume": 335777.95, "trend": 1.476, "fair_value": 2.110513, "relative_strength": -22.776593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.607043, "energy": 45.24548, "activity_lines": [ 1.230667, 1.252727, 1.354333, 1.400387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.46, "volume": 842236, "typical_volume": 359288.25, "trend": 1.465, "fair_value": 2.108654, "relative_strength": -11.920441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.809103, "energy": 18.568759, "activity_lines": [ 1.31, 1.282182, 1.359905, 1.399355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }