{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b23ac2b8-997e-419d-ab22-635214e6429e", "symbol": "AIA", "name": "iShares Asia 50 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.688, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.659, "architecture_energy": 18.924, "architecture_maturity": 61.231, "architecture_confidence": 91.613, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.18, "rotation_up": 23.17, "upward_expansion": 54.38, "deceleration": 90.83, "rotation_down": 29.31, "downward_expansion": 18.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.498, 135.106923, 134.291464, 129.513757 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 135.24, "trend_reference": 123.169015, "distance_from_trend": 0.098003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 79.001634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.711863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.354527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.236377, "excess_performance": 0.048923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123146, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.711863, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083545, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.236377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.155077, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1567231, "relative_activity": 0.64373, "balance": 1.155077, "dry_up": 0.888369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074118, "annualized_volatility": 0.343498, "from_high_reference": -0.103302, "from_low_reference": 0.654391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.169015, "fair_value_reference": 79.001634, "structural_low": 101.063462, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01603, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.009579, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.194436, "worst_return": -0.051381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.126936, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.039498, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.337649, "worst_return": -0.007891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.160077, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027062, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.397913, "worst_return": -0.027189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 130.08, "volume": 1607345, "typical_volume": 2465821.85, "trend": 119.901189, "fair_value": 77.52325, "relative_strength": 10.030219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.774952, "energy": 25.984186, "activity_lines": [ 135.584667, 137.15201, 132.540737, 127.140783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.15, "volume": 1904279, "typical_volume": 2397660.9, "trend": 121.048232, "fair_value": 77.988273, "relative_strength": 12.172798, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.599749, "energy": 21.576907, "activity_lines": [ 133.276667, 136.074743, 133.041438, 127.866513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.46, "volume": 3572470, "typical_volume": 2432718.05, "trend": 122.11948, "fair_value": 78.483547, "relative_strength": 12.907362, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.413462, "energy": 18.458095, "activity_lines": [ 132.939333, 135.426486, 133.644683, 128.667272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.24, "volume": 1567231, "typical_volume": 2434608.6, "trend": 123.169015, "fair_value": 79.001634, "relative_strength": 8.354527, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.658629, "energy": 18.923714, "activity_lines": [ 133.498, 135.106923, 134.291464, 129.513757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }