{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b23c9bb7-a1fb-48f6-adf6-811e769ca869", "symbol": "NOL", "name": "Northern Ocean Ltd.", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.929, "architecture_energy": 77.314, "architecture_maturity": 27.553, "architecture_confidence": 95.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 14.45, "upward_expansion": 18.62, "deceleration": 37.68, "rotation_down": 70.93, "downward_expansion": 94.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.486667, 7.646909, 7.943667, 8.192667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.48, "trend_reference": 8.494333, "distance_from_trend": -0.119413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.384744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.093743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155756, "excess_performance": -0.28075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009715, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.016146, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 476440, "relative_activity": 0.131982, "balance": 0.016146, "dry_up": 0.148994, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052448, "annualized_volatility": 0.229377, "from_high_reference": -0.3125, "from_low_reference": 0.355072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.494333, "fair_value_reference": 8.384744, "structural_low": 7.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01669, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.016439, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.293872, "worst_return": -0.270795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040817, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.041537, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214605, "worst_return": -0.237306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107337, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.013329, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.22736, "worst_return": -0.319778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { 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"trend": 8.566333, "fair_value": 8.469744, "relative_strength": -13.774889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.061004, "energy": 73.154833, "activity_lines": [ 7.629333, 7.796364, 8.105667, 8.331677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.46, "volume": 176168, "typical_volume": 3609721.1, "trend": 8.528333, "fair_value": 8.425897, "relative_strength": -15.120457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.996146, "energy": 80.250534, "activity_lines": [ 7.530667, 7.706909, 8.020048, 8.260301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.48, "volume": 476440, "typical_volume": 3609885.15, "trend": 8.494333, "fair_value": 8.384744, "relative_strength": -15.093743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.928764, "energy": 77.313538, "activity_lines": [ 7.486667, 7.646909, 7.943667, 8.192667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }