{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b240286c-c868-406e-9811-a91a7f2bb992", "symbol": "300321", "name": "Shandong Tongda Island New Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.867, "architecture_energy": 38.329, "architecture_maturity": 58.729, "architecture_confidence": 60.917, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.94, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 67.01, "rotation_down": 66.53, "downward_expansion": 42.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.24, 39.778, 41.325848, 40.7322 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.360001, "trend_reference": 40.518007, "distance_from_trend": -0.151982, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.544899, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.645082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15933, "excess_performance": -0.16673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151982, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027724, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.485335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138734, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.689846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16633955, "relative_activity": 1.274, "balance": 0.689846, "dry_up": 1.471588, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.237025, "annualized_volatility": 0.800922, "from_high_reference": -0.45024, "from_low_reference": 0.277323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.518007, "fair_value_reference": 27.544899, "structural_low": 26.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.020358, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.00107, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.302555, "worst_return": -0.270798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026883, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001295, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.448612, "worst_return": -0.376258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053726, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.12704, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.491367, "worst_return": -0.134685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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87.320136, "energy": 87.957037, "activity_lines": [ 53.579334, 49.017956, 44.040083, 42.765087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.119999, "volume": 25044085, "typical_volume": 10748059.95, "trend": 42.177459, "fair_value": 27.137604, "relative_strength": 5.293784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.28034, "energy": 73.321673, "activity_lines": [ 52.498667, 49.219853, 44.593384, 43.08371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.0, "volume": 18193710, "typical_volume": 11463565.45, "trend": 41.907486, "fair_value": 27.264326, "relative_strength": -11.644612, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.151476, "energy": 29.897183, "activity_lines": [ 47.538, 47.229841, 44.063643, 42.685164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.799999, "volume": 21449656, "typical_volume": 12167083.25, "trend": 41.462849, "fair_value": 27.354837, "relative_strength": -24.594064, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.211085, "energy": 18.2332, "activity_lines": [ 41.124666, 44.437636, 43.063435, 41.968552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.82, "volume": 20577714, "typical_volume": 12591661.85, "trend": 40.88061, "fair_value": 27.432144, "relative_strength": -28.17296, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.104949, "energy": 39.969735, "activity_lines": [ 35.299333, 41.486182, 41.911437, 41.152885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.360001, "volume": 16633955, "typical_volume": 13056479.5, "trend": 40.518007, "fair_value": 27.544899, "relative_strength": -18.645082, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.866742, "energy": 38.329241, "activity_lines": [ 33.24, 39.778, 41.325848, 40.7322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }