{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2408604-5397-4e6a-a445-6b0b8480fe90", "symbol": "XLP", "name": "STATE STREET CONSUMER STAPLES SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.131, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.694, "architecture_energy": 15.173, "architecture_maturity": 11.756, "architecture_confidence": 62.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.48, "rotation_up": 44.02, "upward_expansion": 46.7, "deceleration": 36.47, "rotation_down": 26.05, "downward_expansion": 7.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.846, 84.654658, 84.158648, 84.074242 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 85.12, "trend_reference": 84.132431, "distance_from_trend": 0.011738, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.404301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114073, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.926593, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026643, "excess_performance": -0.152268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011738, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007003, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.88589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47560290, "relative_activity": 0.791911, "balance": 2.88589, "dry_up": 0.910068, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036062, "annualized_volatility": 0.134616, "from_high_reference": -0.0504, "from_low_reference": 0.148032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.132431, "fair_value_reference": 76.404301, "structural_low": 80.455, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.00517, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.011302, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.059824, "worst_return": -0.072552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011542, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.034021, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.112781, "worst_return": -0.025435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030712, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.011581, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.136591, "worst_return": -0.066096, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.13, "volume": 42490461, "typical_volume": 62461177.3, "trend": 83.66228, "fair_value": 76.202802, "relative_strength": -4.233518, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.746296, "energy": 24.972664, "activity_lines": [ 84.564, 84.293319, 83.841286, 83.907424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.05, "volume": 77358428, "typical_volume": 61879484.7, "trend": 83.922044, "fair_value": 76.303773, "relative_strength": -4.020854, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.745494, "energy": 23.601609, "activity_lines": [ 84.704667, 84.475247, 83.998496, 83.996955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.12, "volume": 47560290, "typical_volume": 60057613.35, "trend": 84.132431, "fair_value": 76.404301, "relative_strength": -6.926593, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.694183, "energy": 15.17282, "activity_lines": [ 84.846, 84.654658, 84.158648, 84.074242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }