{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b242ea80-fc0f-4fdf-aa73-39d8492f4904", "symbol": "CBY", "name": "Canterbury Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.154, "architecture_energy": 30.505, "architecture_maturity": 37.117, "architecture_confidence": 76.208, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.52, "rotation_up": 46.7, "upward_expansion": 71.68, "deceleration": 60.27, "rotation_down": 22.38, "downward_expansion": 7.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.044373, 0.043869, 0.041425 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.047, "trend_reference": 0.03875, "distance_from_trend": 0.212903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.030888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.521635, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 38.031331, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.27027, "excess_performance": 0.206565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20093, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.521635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.380313, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.27027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63004, "relative_activity": 0.046553, "balance": 1.281743, "dry_up": 0.26036, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159574, "annualized_volatility": 1.078354, "from_high_reference": -0.241935, "from_low_reference": 1.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.03875, "fair_value_reference": 0.030888, "structural_low": 0.023, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0122, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.71875, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.021717, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287879, "worst_return": -0.244444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.444444, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.508081, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.444444, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.377778, 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"2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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22.658877, "activity_lines": [ 0.0437, 0.045509, 0.041405, 0.039043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.041, "volume": 320931, "typical_volume": 1404556.75, "trend": 0.036217, "fair_value": 0.030446, "relative_strength": 32.744776, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.95806, "energy": 17.961523, "activity_lines": [ 0.042867, 0.044736, 0.041664, 0.039384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.041, "volume": 673106, "typical_volume": 1415695.9, "trend": 0.036717, "fair_value": 0.03051, "relative_strength": 31.500618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.194579, "energy": 16.104353, "activity_lines": [ 0.042367, 0.043782, 0.041905, 0.039692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.046, "volume": 97156, "typical_volume": 1370578.9, "trend": 0.037383, "fair_value": 0.030638, "relative_strength": 46.077764, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.618639, "energy": 20.482431, "activity_lines": [ 0.043467, 0.043809, 0.042583, 0.040291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.046, "volume": 576213, "typical_volume": 1366641.6, "trend": 0.03805, "fair_value": 0.030753, "relative_strength": 41.144915, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.585269, "energy": 23.941349, "activity_lines": [ 0.044333, 0.044, 0.043214, 0.040847 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.047, "volume": 63004, "typical_volume": 1353395.6, "trend": 0.03875, "fair_value": 0.030888, "relative_strength": 38.031331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.15415, "energy": 30.504779, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.044373, 0.043869, 0.041425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }