{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b243a57e-227d-4441-ac68-f56c2e0c9721", "symbol": "MPAA", "name": "Motorcar Parts of America Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.227, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.203, "architecture_energy": 21.271, "architecture_maturity": 59.687, "architecture_confidence": 75.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.14, "rotation_up": 22.84, "upward_expansion": 58.18, "deceleration": 93.78, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 15.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.678, 14.033455, 13.283429, 12.698151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.63, "trend_reference": 12.192, "distance_from_trend": 0.117946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.767179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.99335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037291, "excess_performance": -0.150163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117946, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.39549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138651, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133487, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.217195, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 477321, "relative_activity": 1.015365, "balance": 1.217195, "dry_up": 0.97459, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114093, "annualized_volatility": 0.67354, "from_high_reference": -0.247792, "from_low_reference": 0.467169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.192, "fair_value_reference": 9.767179, "structural_low": 9.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005175, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.024901, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.466292, "worst_return": -0.180908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.209573, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.128381, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.328228, "worst_return": -0.215478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.103493, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.705056, "worst_return": -0.16085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.167269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033384, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-01", 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"typical_volume": 512132.95, "trend": 12.045667, "fair_value": 9.649038, "relative_strength": -7.602609, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.188539, "energy": 78.683879, "activity_lines": [ 14.755333, 13.787818, 12.706667, 12.285161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.0, "volume": 539472, "typical_volume": 507080.6, "trend": 12.083667, "fair_value": 9.679808, "relative_strength": -3.966666, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.852521, "energy": 54.886674, "activity_lines": [ 14.442, 13.971818, 12.903762, 12.411247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.79, "volume": 382444, "typical_volume": 489228.0, "trend": 12.127333, "fair_value": 9.710192, "relative_strength": -3.752586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.0731, "energy": 39.210938, "activity_lines": [ 14.131333, 14.075091, 13.063429, 12.521333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4, "volume": 433374, "typical_volume": 473740.6, "trend": 12.162, "fair_value": 9.736154, "relative_strength": -7.078253, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.809991, "energy": 25.556918, "activity_lines": [ 13.795333, 14.056, 13.170286, 12.603441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.63, "volume": 477321, "typical_volume": 470098.1, "trend": 12.192, "fair_value": 9.767179, "relative_strength": -9.99335, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.202528, "energy": 21.270703, "activity_lines": [ 13.678, 14.033455, 13.283429, 12.698151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }