{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b246b5e3-8d29-4514-91b6-a73f01a61a49", "symbol": "000541", "name": "Foshan Electrical and Lighting Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.844, "architecture_energy": 43.102, "architecture_maturity": 70.2, "architecture_confidence": 88.109, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.41, "rotation_up": 24.87, "upward_expansion": 6.11, "deceleration": 58.51, "rotation_down": 47.19, "downward_expansion": 77.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.932, 4.967364, 5.077044, 5.271065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.94, "trend_reference": 5.563221, "distance_from_trend": -0.112025, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.750705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.766825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.213376, "excess_performance": -0.220776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39401292, "relative_activity": 1.09483, "balance": 0.515604, "dry_up": 1.058486, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061274, "annualized_volatility": 0.234888, "from_high_reference": -0.336913, "from_low_reference": 0.063356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.563221, "fair_value_reference": 5.750705, "structural_low": 4.645671, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.018599, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.000517, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.19869, "worst_return": -0.095703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012411, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023101, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.52665, "worst_return": -0.139037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.090892, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.719647, "worst_return": -0.233848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 41.660938, "activity_lines": [ 5.024347, 5.005081, 5.194139, 5.40971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8, "volume": 39086227, "typical_volume": 38599945.5, "trend": 5.633221, "fair_value": 5.754731, "relative_strength": -20.634609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.97532, "energy": 49.964556, "activity_lines": [ 4.943428, 4.963724, 5.137631, 5.353137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.02, "volume": 33857412, "typical_volume": 37141207.4, "trend": 5.598887, "fair_value": 5.752484, "relative_strength": -14.983186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.143902, "energy": 45.705411, "activity_lines": [ 4.948667, 4.971808, 5.108504, 5.313574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.94, "volume": 39401292, "typical_volume": 35988512.4, "trend": 5.563221, "fair_value": 5.750705, "relative_strength": -19.766825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.844285, "energy": 43.102024, "activity_lines": [ 4.932, 4.967364, 5.077044, 5.271065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }