{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b24a2f62-3dd7-4d41-bc1b-883f77fe9734", "symbol": "VETO", "name": "Vetoquinol SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.963, "architecture_energy": 20.102, "architecture_maturity": 77.404, "architecture_confidence": 70.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.74, "rotation_up": 27.65, "upward_expansion": 19.88, "deceleration": 46.52, "rotation_down": 20.56, "downward_expansion": 53.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.246666, 71.681818, 72.046237, 73.878756 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 72.599998, "trend_reference": 76.955039, "distance_from_trend": -0.056592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.519502, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.140663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165517, "excess_performance": -0.218829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006982, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161504, "relative_activity": 6.869383, "balance": 0.623033, "dry_up": 2.813932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03381, "annualized_volatility": 0.20866, "from_high_reference": -0.206557, "from_low_reference": 0.061403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.955039, "fair_value_reference": 82.519502, "structural_low": 68.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.018315, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.005672, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.139647, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003481, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039384, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.272283, "worst_return": -0.110857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037381, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011754, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.169719, "worst_return": -0.181714, 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-10.498964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.509204, "energy": 65.635216, "activity_lines": [ 70.601977, 71.083915, 73.847222, 76.407803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 70.800003, "volume": 6136, "typical_volume": 11581.15, "trend": 78.731705, "fair_value": 83.087952, "relative_strength": -13.467344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.481428, "energy": 51.450847, "activity_lines": [ 70.720002, 70.799145, 73.281265, 75.887048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 71.0, "volume": 18605, "typical_volume": 12040.7, "trend": 78.531705, "fair_value": 82.981432, "relative_strength": -11.206033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.498828, "energy": 43.901321, "activity_lines": [ 70.926668, 70.732514, 72.830545, 75.388228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.400002, "volume": 15206, "typical_volume": 12477.2, "trend": 78.225039, "fair_value": 82.874335, "relative_strength": -10.414229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.719876, "energy": 35.056846, "activity_lines": [ 71.166668, 70.828859, 72.492682, 74.928118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.5, "volume": 62845, "typical_volume": 15067.75, "trend": 77.808372, "fair_value": 82.743377, "relative_strength": -10.419835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.312127, "energy": 34.989052, "activity_lines": [ 71.340001, 70.977932, 72.227677, 74.494245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.099998, "volume": 25075, "typical_volume": 15887.5, "trend": 77.431705, "fair_value": 82.639639, "relative_strength": -9.635675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.909619, "energy": 26.62568, "activity_lines": [ 71.9, 71.391448, 72.148385, 74.190479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.599998, "volume": 161504, "typical_volume": 23510.7, "trend": 76.955039, "fair_value": 82.519502, "relative_strength": -12.140663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.963035, "energy": 20.101589, "activity_lines": [ 72.246666, 71.681818, 72.046237, 73.878756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }