{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b24f1971-8177-436b-93e9-e0af65c4d915", "symbol": "AFX", "name": "Carl Zeiss Meditec AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.774, "architecture_energy": 55.109, "architecture_maturity": 14.548, "architecture_confidence": 64.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.62, "rotation_up": 67.93, "upward_expansion": 86.0, "deceleration": 47.55, "rotation_down": 12.07, "downward_expansion": 10.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.716, 28.945091, 27.740476, 27.124548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.9, "trend_reference": 27.013504, "distance_from_trend": 0.106854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.585438, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.687061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120818, "excess_performance": -0.053429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182906, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.975031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3218, "relative_activity": 3.012121, "balance": 0.975031, "dry_up": 1.24257, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077541, "annualized_volatility": 0.363429, "from_high_reference": -0.364854, "from_low_reference": 0.339874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.013504, "fair_value_reference": 58.585438, "structural_low": 22.315538, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077416, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031671, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.152015, "worst_return": -0.148284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.029495, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.064987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195915, "worst_return": -0.12468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.310487, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.309341, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.039488, "worst_return": -0.326776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.14619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.236198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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29.379999, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 833.3, "trend": 28.00695, "fair_value": 59.856778, "relative_strength": -30.285694, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.25641, "energy": 56.838469, "activity_lines": [ 28.94, 27.709454, 26.815296, 26.762226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.620001, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 833.15, "trend": 27.614631, "fair_value": 59.391201, "relative_strength": -34.110008, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.254693, "energy": 55.339383, "activity_lines": [ 28.765333, 27.839636, 26.96303, 26.737261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.08, "volume": 1752, "typical_volume": 908.2, "trend": 27.362419, "fair_value": 58.979612, "relative_strength": -24.669008, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.186427, "energy": 64.986174, "activity_lines": [ 29.570667, 28.544727, 27.426576, 26.960833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.9, "volume": 3218, "typical_volume": 1068.35, "trend": 27.013504, "fair_value": 58.585438, "relative_strength": -28.687061, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.773759, "energy": 55.108694, "activity_lines": [ 29.716, 28.945091, 27.740476, 27.124548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }