{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2540bab-48b8-47d6-bd9c-f25ddaa5f762", "symbol": "XIIT", "name": "Premier ETF IDX30", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.794, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.134, "architecture_energy": 16.649, "architecture_maturity": 88.909, "architecture_confidence": 58.643, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.59, "rotation_up": 31.4, "upward_expansion": 19.4, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 55.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 457.2, 449.072727, 453.133333, 465.821505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 468.0, "trend_reference": 487.4, "distance_from_trend": -0.039803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 524.391026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.660749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.141284, "excess_performance": 0.050972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107536, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076607, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039954, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.010018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206700, "relative_activity": 0.053345, "balance": 0.010018, "dry_up": 0.047345, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09451, "annualized_volatility": 0.266897, "from_high_reference": -0.262992, "from_low_reference": 0.138686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 487.4, "fair_value_reference": 524.391026, "structural_low": 411.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.020522, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010573, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.076605, "worst_return": -0.140873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065389, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.019541, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.131915, "worst_return": -0.125761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015296, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148936, "worst_return": -0.013725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038934, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.580419, "energy": 36.170959, "activity_lines": [ 442.133333, 441.2, 455.861905, 472.836559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 448.0, "volume": 273200, "typical_volume": 3869805.0, "trend": 493.166667, "fair_value": 525.769231, "relative_strength": 6.940312, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.630692, "energy": 26.711229, "activity_lines": [ 444.6, 441.818182, 453.809524, 469.713978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 455.0, "volume": 97200, "typical_volume": 3869315.0, "trend": 490.166667, "fair_value": 525.038462, "relative_strength": 7.765482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.734689, "energy": 18.424732, "activity_lines": [ 449.533333, 444.290909, 452.766667, 467.251613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 468.0, "volume": 206700, "typical_volume": 3874755.0, "trend": 487.4, "fair_value": 524.391026, "relative_strength": 7.660749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.13424, "energy": 16.648683, "activity_lines": [ 457.2, 449.072727, 453.133333, 465.821505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }