{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2591259-7af9-44ef-8a99-cf90c2b88d2e", "symbol": "EDTK", "name": "Skillful Craftsman Education Tech", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.713, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.019, "architecture_energy": 10.246, "architecture_maturity": 32.066, "architecture_confidence": 38.763, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.78, "rotation_up": 30.23, "upward_expansion": 12.13, "deceleration": 48.46, "rotation_down": 41.46, "downward_expansion": 46.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.962633, 0.966125, 0.976882, 0.977303 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.9999, "trend_reference": 0.974727, "distance_from_trend": 0.025826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.00413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.758288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052526, "excess_performance": -0.134927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004213, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.290959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194865, "relative_activity": 10.605042, "balance": 4.290959, "dry_up": 3.113893, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089001, "annualized_volatility": 0.269313, "from_high_reference": -0.152627, "from_low_reference": 0.249875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.974727, "fair_value_reference": 1.00413, "structural_low": 0.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.017, "positive_rate": 0.24, "directional_follow_through": 0.24, "median_excess_return": -0.069648, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.76397, "worst_return": -0.140127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.056075, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.198189, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.257812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.162991, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.238332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.68, "worst_return": -0.404762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.135647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0001, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.1604, "volume": 441013, "typical_volume": 211304.0, "trend": 1.581513, "fair_value": 1.829665, "relative_strength": -27.693022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.098994, 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1.008477, "relative_strength": -12.878834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.563326, "energy": 17.196224, "activity_lines": [ 0.960733, 0.968467, 0.981453, 0.978152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.932, "volume": 10134, "typical_volume": 9561.9, "trend": 0.973063, "fair_value": 1.005605, "relative_strength": -14.910791, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.999181, "energy": 26.751388, "activity_lines": [ 0.948667, 0.960505, 0.975749, 0.975571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9999, "volume": 194865, "typical_volume": 18374.75, "trend": 0.974727, "fair_value": 1.00413, "relative_strength": -12.758288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.018702, "energy": 10.245552, "activity_lines": [ 0.962633, 0.966125, 0.976882, 0.977303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }