{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b26a9150-6d1e-4788-bcf3-5cc2ecbf7dc4", "symbol": "N08", "name": "New Toyo International Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.268, "architecture_energy": 58.09, "architecture_maturity": 65.212, "architecture_confidence": 91.753, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 14.98, "upward_expansion": 11.21, "deceleration": 40.95, "rotation_down": 63.11, "downward_expansion": 84.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1968, 0.198855, 0.202095, 0.204085 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.195, "trend_reference": 0.20859, "distance_from_trend": -0.06515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.217798, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.172376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136473, "excess_performance": -0.291308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054009, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104676, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6400, "relative_activity": 0.045908, "balance": 0.608425, "dry_up": 0.683416, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036292, "annualized_volatility": 0.213667, "from_high_reference": -0.23491, "from_low_reference": 0.020942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.20859, "fair_value_reference": 0.217798, "structural_low": 0.191, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018288, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.080564, "worst_return": -0.130432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052541, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095909, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.123788, "worst_return": -0.065216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027689, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.177571, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.058953, "worst_return": -0.114331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079999, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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182530.0, "trend": 0.212356, "fair_value": 0.2172, "relative_strength": -23.960796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.183875, "energy": 42.986837, "activity_lines": [ 0.200667, 0.202273, 0.204301, 0.20693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.194, "volume": 110600, "typical_volume": 178950.0, "trend": 0.210968, "fair_value": 0.217385, "relative_strength": -26.574485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.579914, "energy": 59.856512, "activity_lines": [ 0.198, 0.200455, 0.203311, 0.205746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2, "volume": 104900, "typical_volume": 155240.0, "trend": 0.209781, "fair_value": 0.217608, "relative_strength": -24.118085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.966528, "energy": 56.730829, "activity_lines": [ 0.198067, 0.200018, 0.20295, 0.205038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.195, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 139410.0, "trend": 0.20859, "fair_value": 0.217798, "relative_strength": -26.172376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.267763, "energy": 58.090229, "activity_lines": [ 0.1968, 0.198855, 0.202095, 0.204085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }