{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2719e8d-a9dc-4379-a4d9-447c3debf27d", "symbol": "JJEH", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Japan Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.67, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.594, "architecture_energy": 26.271, "architecture_maturity": 62.423, "architecture_confidence": 86.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.93, "rotation_up": 32.45, "upward_expansion": 61.38, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.49, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.590667, 54.897818, 54.158357, 53.152677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 55.389999, "trend_reference": 51.873833, "distance_from_trend": 0.067783, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.506923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.438443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.943806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130524, "excess_performance": -0.040368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067783, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06688, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.438443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.556444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1659, "relative_activity": 0.598658, "balance": 6.556444, "dry_up": 0.579713, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031955, "annualized_volatility": 0.213684, "from_high_reference": -0.026024, "from_low_reference": 0.457823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.873833, "fair_value_reference": 38.506923, "structural_low": 46.82, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.116523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018119, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060867, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.332431, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 53.540001, "volume": 1786, "typical_volume": 2809.1, "trend": 51.035167, "fair_value": 37.993462, "relative_strength": -0.315401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.452056, "energy": 52.99873, "activity_lines": [ 55.126001, 54.924546, 53.546, 52.51671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.880001, "volume": 1640, "typical_volume": 2827.3, "trend": 51.3355, "fair_value": 38.167083, "relative_strength": 2.137402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.227222, "energy": 41.656351, "activity_lines": [ 54.908001, 54.997091, 53.80431, 52.764764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.549999, "volume": 1341, "typical_volume": 2815.7, "trend": 51.591833, "fair_value": 38.33266, "relative_strength": -1.184266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.533968, "energy": 27.856639, "activity_lines": [ 54.374667, 54.784546, 53.905976, 52.907634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.389999, "volume": 1659, "typical_volume": 2771.2, "trend": 51.873833, "fair_value": 38.506923, "relative_strength": -0.943806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.593698, "energy": 26.270644, "activity_lines": [ 54.590667, 54.897818, 54.158357, 53.152677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }