{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b27389d3-8359-44a6-aab0-a1475d4e6a2c", "symbol": "MFEB", "name": "MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.785, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.088, "architecture_energy": 14.205, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.47, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.19, "rotation_up": 34.48, "upward_expansion": 19.45, "deceleration": 43.85, "rotation_down": 21.57, "downward_expansion": 55.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.547047, 3.480187, 3.531907, 3.565025 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.722, "trend_reference": 3.653254, "distance_from_trend": 0.018818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.620649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.383391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060101, "excess_performance": -0.230993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.266838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4923477, "relative_activity": 2.649628, "balance": 1.266838, "dry_up": 1.765558, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058695, "annualized_volatility": 0.35303, "from_high_reference": -0.304299, "from_low_reference": 0.225148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.653254, "fair_value_reference": 3.620649, "structural_low": 3.038, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.021312, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018888, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.244388, "worst_return": -0.152966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.066637, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.055449, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.172291, "worst_return": -0.350516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.130154, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.236444, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.267496, "worst_return": -0.417647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.017799, "energy": 72.544016, "activity_lines": [ 3.344977, 3.455614, 3.534395, 3.604828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.502, "volume": 4172235, "typical_volume": 1980979.6, "trend": 3.699854, "fair_value": 3.611912, "relative_strength": -21.999256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.01106, "energy": 65.194674, "activity_lines": [ 3.377802, 3.450457, 3.527921, 3.590907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.404, "volume": 1784896, "typical_volume": 1956582.9, "trend": 3.680587, "fair_value": 3.614236, "relative_strength": -23.594735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.656002, "energy": 39.73037, "activity_lines": [ 3.391427, 3.431337, 3.514484, 3.571819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.516, "volume": 2242264, "typical_volume": 1861240.3, "trend": 3.662721, "fair_value": 3.616471, "relative_strength": -21.063929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.973631, "energy": 24.594586, "activity_lines": [ 3.44503, 3.436289, 3.51362, 3.561201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.722, "volume": 4923477, "typical_volume": 1858176.45, "trend": 3.653254, "fair_value": 3.620649, "relative_strength": -18.383391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.088342, "energy": 14.205235, "activity_lines": [ 3.547047, 3.480187, 3.531907, 3.565025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }