{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2771f7b-bd45-4e33-ac29-fc2af30852a1", "symbol": "CAN", "name": "Cann Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.596, "architecture_energy": 55.073, "architecture_maturity": 96.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.261, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.2, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 9.26, "deceleration": 44.91, "rotation_down": 62.66, "downward_expansion": 82.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003455, 0.003945, 0.004537 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.005533, "distance_from_trend": -0.457831, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.03964, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.924318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.439941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.625, "excess_performance": -0.688706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.457831, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.924318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.654399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.103112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10812613, "relative_activity": 0.6859, "balance": 0.103112, "dry_up": 1.81392, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.397436, "annualized_volatility": 1.140127, "from_high_reference": -0.869565, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005533, "fair_value_reference": 0.03964, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 53, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.283019, "directional_follow_through": 0.622642, "median_excess_return": -0.071297, "regime_survival": 0.90566, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.548387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.207143, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.230104, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 1.142857, "worst_return": -0.548387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.368421, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.335683, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.092593, "worst_return": -0.541667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.621725, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.701582, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.710526, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-04-29", "end": "2022-05-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.189873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-05-27", "end": "2022-07-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-09-09", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.381818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.242424, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.004, "volume": 7513059, "typical_volume": 12483339.0, "trend": 0.006217, "fair_value": 0.042053, "relative_strength": -55.150477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.846991, "energy": 35.842381, "activity_lines": [ 0.0041, 0.004082, 0.004498, 0.005152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 43245113, "typical_volume": 13841037.1, "trend": 0.006017, "fair_value": 0.041207, "relative_strength": -65.356753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.171001, "energy": 40.495621, "activity_lines": [ 0.003767, 0.003864, 0.00431, 0.004944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 52808688, "typical_volume": 16298095.5, "trend": 0.0058, "fair_value": 0.040422, "relative_strength": -70.966367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.713307, "energy": 50.612796, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003591, 0.004093, 0.004717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 10812613, "typical_volume": 15764132.45, "trend": 0.005533, "fair_value": 0.03964, "relative_strength": -65.439941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.596359, "energy": 55.072652, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003455, 0.003945, 0.004537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }