{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b27ade39-234e-43e9-8be3-aaa434a57022", "symbol": "ARX", "name": "Aroa Biosurgery Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.294, "architecture_energy": 48.958, "architecture_maturity": 11.273, "architecture_confidence": 86.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.28, "rotation_up": 12.19, "upward_expansion": 8.28, "deceleration": 41.8, "rotation_down": 68.18, "downward_expansion": 86.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.568, 0.579818, 0.596167, 0.600172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.56, "trend_reference": 0.616, "distance_from_trend": -0.090909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.624071, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.161208, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138462, "excess_performance": -0.202167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102666, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5268431, "relative_activity": 5.145076, "balance": 0.573961, "dry_up": 1.874758, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093407, "annualized_volatility": 0.405794, "from_high_reference": -0.3, "from_low_reference": 0.131313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.616, "fair_value_reference": 0.624071, "structural_low": 0.495, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021266, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.00969, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.255102, "worst_return": -0.115512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.021414, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.474359, "worst_return": -0.185714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.142811, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098197, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.807692, "worst_return": -0.226519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.294872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.229167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 707743.65, "trend": 0.633167, "fair_value": 0.630513, "relative_strength": -10.475749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.178384, "energy": 32.349056, "activity_lines": [ 0.587, 0.607545, 0.605571, 0.612699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.56, "volume": 1225530, "typical_volume": 751625.45, "trend": 0.628167, "fair_value": 0.628269, "relative_strength": -14.020236, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.771802, "energy": 47.783375, "activity_lines": [ 0.576, 0.596636, 0.601881, 0.607978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 702379, "typical_volume": 775935.6, "trend": 0.622833, "fair_value": 0.626122, "relative_strength": -14.247815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.557553, "energy": 46.849086, "activity_lines": [ 0.573, 0.588636, 0.599429, 0.604226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.56, "volume": 5268431, "typical_volume": 1023975.35, "trend": 0.616, "fair_value": 0.624071, "relative_strength": -18.161208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.293548, "energy": 48.957759, "activity_lines": [ 0.568, 0.579818, 0.596167, 0.600172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }