{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b27cd344-490d-4b0d-ac5b-866227db7316", "symbol": "LOAN", "name": "Manhattan Bridge Capital Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.698, "architecture_energy": 50.023, "architecture_maturity": 15.467, "architecture_confidence": 88.717, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.28, "rotation_up": 16.52, "upward_expansion": 14.51, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 62.49, "downward_expansion": 83.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.140667, 4.215578, 4.250817, 4.27297 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 4.306624, "distance_from_trend": -0.043334, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.451345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.590505, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064094, "excess_performance": -0.251548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074437, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892443, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132419, "relative_activity": 0.844098, "balance": 0.892443, "dry_up": 1.254476, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052977, "annualized_volatility": 0.248666, "from_high_reference": -0.238358, "from_low_reference": 0.05641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.306624, "fair_value_reference": 4.451345, "structural_low": 3.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.024814, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.065934, "worst_return": -0.105894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021857, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029601, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.062692, "worst_return": -0.137787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005369, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.081876, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.043837, "worst_return": -0.146916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046566, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.19571, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.252443, "worst_return": -0.142649, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072165, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038644, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053812, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092888, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.632766, "volume": 88143, "typical_volume": 114409.1, "trend": 3.903347, "fair_value": 3.836718, "relative_strength": -21.856791, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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173616, "typical_volume": 144756.35, "trend": 4.352895, "fair_value": 4.445835, "relative_strength": -14.820725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.197105, "energy": 10.656426, "activity_lines": [ 4.355272, 4.310675, 4.314233, 4.321453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 235635, "typical_volume": 149493.15, "trend": 4.330283, "fair_value": 4.446695, "relative_strength": -20.523067, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.307561, "energy": 27.689718, "activity_lines": [ 4.228733, 4.255218, 4.281583, 4.29675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.16, "volume": 245520, "typical_volume": 157366.1, "trend": 4.318307, "fair_value": 4.449023, "relative_strength": -16.462653, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.336715, "energy": 37.682241, "activity_lines": [ 4.185459, 4.238852, 4.267923, 4.285764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 132419, "typical_volume": 156876.3, "trend": 4.306624, "fair_value": 4.451345, "relative_strength": -20.590505, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.697677, "energy": 50.022888, "activity_lines": [ 4.140667, 4.215578, 4.250817, 4.27297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }