{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2885e9f-53c2-4c63-b8a0-319c1913a3ae", "symbol": "WM", "name": "Waste Management Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.034, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.709, "architecture_energy": 23.17, "architecture_maturity": 6.275, "architecture_confidence": 50.528, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.5, "rotation_up": 53.57, "upward_expansion": 43.44, "deceleration": 27.22, "rotation_down": 19.06, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 231.52, 230.147636, 226.230718, 226.60929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 227.68, "trend_reference": 226.899253, "distance_from_trend": 0.003441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.771202, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.550328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012223, "excess_performance": -0.113402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03535, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085503, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060144, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012223, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11981453, "relative_activity": 1.18848, "balance": 1.220802, "dry_up": 0.978027, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050508, "annualized_volatility": 0.220787, "from_high_reference": -0.078759, "from_low_reference": 0.187207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 226.899253, "fair_value_reference": 206.771202, "structural_low": 209.222923, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022482, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037809, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060073, "worst_return": -0.020406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020206, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186544, "worst_return": -0.07125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24336, "worst_return": -0.052638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"mixed", "direction": 38.303603, "energy": 54.359653, "activity_lines": [ 235.820667, 229.527166, 225.934853, 226.523166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 226.55, "volume": 11413573, "typical_volume": 9938424.0, "trend": 226.613214, "fair_value": 206.29719, "relative_strength": -6.216465, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.999371, "energy": 39.62737, "activity_lines": [ 233.516, 229.821767, 226.002877, 226.540465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 227.68, "volume": 11981453, "typical_volume": 10081325.05, "trend": 226.899253, "fair_value": 206.771202, "relative_strength": -8.550328, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.708563, "energy": 23.170492, "activity_lines": [ 231.52, 230.147636, 226.230718, 226.60929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }