{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2888e3d-08ba-461b-9bec-7fd494ab55e0", "symbol": "LYTS", "name": "LSI Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.033, "architecture_energy": 21.938, "architecture_maturity": 53.55, "architecture_confidence": 82.403, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.61, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 54.36, "deceleration": 90.28, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 18.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.074667, 24.513091, 24.158756, 23.3462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.17, "trend_reference": 22.5047, "distance_from_trend": 0.118433, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.812526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.469081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10197, "excess_performance": -0.085484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118433, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413051, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014691, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1106232, "relative_activity": 0.577231, "balance": 0.619366, "dry_up": 0.603212, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083622, "annualized_volatility": 0.365569, "from_high_reference": -0.080044, "from_low_reference": 0.469379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.5047, "fair_value_reference": 17.812526, "structural_low": 18.051214, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017455, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004506, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197076, "worst_return": -0.120359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017603, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183459, "worst_return": -0.217318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.210414, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.066604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307194, "worst_return": -0.089286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001355, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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21.988117, "fair_value": 17.587114, "relative_strength": 0.632219, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.724393, "energy": 31.439625, "activity_lines": [ 24.852, 24.865636, 23.813486, 23.000599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.23, "volume": 1140024, "typical_volume": 1923813.3, "trend": 22.13919, "fair_value": 17.656856, "relative_strength": -0.776583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.066853, "energy": 20.56265, "activity_lines": [ 24.139333, 24.620545, 23.87938, 23.080721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.39, "volume": 1118003, "typical_volume": 1914837.05, "trend": 22.305885, "fair_value": 17.730348, "relative_strength": -0.734209, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.352266, "energy": 22.5927, "activity_lines": [ 23.704667, 24.406182, 23.944119, 23.161418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.17, "volume": 1106232, "typical_volume": 1916446.95, "trend": 22.5047, "fair_value": 17.812526, "relative_strength": 1.469081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.033282, "energy": 21.937547, "activity_lines": [ 24.074667, 24.513091, 24.158756, 23.3462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }