{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b28c02f0-a0bd-483c-9aba-fbb106a2a14b", "symbol": "6593", "name": "Taiwan Numerical Powers Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.549, "architecture_energy": 55.106, "architecture_maturity": 38.563, "architecture_confidence": 91.329, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.12, "rotation_up": 19.38, "upward_expansion": 9.45, "deceleration": 45.72, "rotation_down": 62.28, "downward_expansion": 85.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.46, 32.893636, 33.834762, 34.793978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.299999, "trend_reference": 35.936667, "distance_from_trend": -0.101197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.452232, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.577514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.43146, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165375, "excess_performance": -0.606747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.577514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.434315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130325, "relative_activity": 0.402924, "balance": 0.986236, "dry_up": 0.627361, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053941, "annualized_volatility": 0.153868, "from_high_reference": -0.441675, "from_low_reference": 0.017323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.936667, "fair_value_reference": 76.452232, "structural_low": 31.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013072, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.062517, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.515222, "worst_return": -0.265328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.087736, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.164396, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.644599, "worst_return": -0.388494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.080306, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.348124, "worst_return": -0.225151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 33.099998, "volume": 172179, "typical_volume": 335669.75, "trend": 36.523333, "fair_value": 77.323598, "relative_strength": -43.607643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.630703, "energy": 54.378001, "activity_lines": [ 33.249999, 33.770909, 34.701428, 35.567849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.400002, "volume": 383133, "typical_volume": 337505.15, "trend": 36.325, "fair_value": 77.038047, "relative_strength": -42.609046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.750374, "energy": 50.550204, "activity_lines": [ 32.956667, 33.443636, 34.393095, 35.301828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.25, "volume": 126039, "typical_volume": 332311.2, "trend": 36.096667, "fair_value": 76.747789, "relative_strength": -42.875965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.493184, "energy": 58.287766, "activity_lines": [ 32.666667, 33.14, 34.098333, 35.038925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.299999, "volume": 130325, "typical_volume": 323448.35, "trend": 35.936667, "fair_value": 76.452232, "relative_strength": -43.43146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.548592, "energy": 55.106495, "activity_lines": [ 32.46, 32.893636, 33.834762, 34.793978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }