{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b28c29c1-12ce-40e2-87f6-f16d3e404f20", "symbol": "000610", "name": "Xi'an Tourism Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.489, "architecture_energy": 64.579, "architecture_maturity": 99.402, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.27, "rotation_down": 55.92, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.543333, 5.692364, 6.381571, 7.109548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.74, "trend_reference": 8.334333, "distance_from_trend": -0.311283, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.279359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.532549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.813081, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.542629, "excess_performance": -0.550029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.311283, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208039, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.532549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.468131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015499, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.542629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508432, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13102585, "relative_activity": 0.389962, "balance": 0.508432, "dry_up": 0.447931, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110292, "annualized_volatility": 0.523459, "from_high_reference": -0.64893, "from_low_reference": 0.169043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.334333, "fair_value_reference": 12.279359, "structural_low": 4.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.029928, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.009874, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.210128, "worst_return": -0.183288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010753, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005861, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.221636, "worst_return": -0.255566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.118357, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145759, "worst_return": 0.019637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -54.059522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.610446, "energy": 87.355655, "activity_lines": [ 5.877333, 6.380909, 7.14519, 7.993785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.53, "volume": 15359136, "typical_volume": 36753774.25, "trend": 9.053, "fair_value": 12.503269, "relative_strength": -49.427749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.173783, "energy": 87.839017, "activity_lines": [ 5.716, 6.153273, 6.927286, 7.751527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.07, "volume": 18405376, "typical_volume": 35309449.85, "trend": 8.789333, "fair_value": 12.424423, "relative_strength": -52.966907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.104858, "energy": 86.321353, "activity_lines": [ 5.466, 5.880545, 6.686095, 7.494559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.64, "volume": 13334110, "typical_volume": 34692453.65, "trend": 8.558333, "fair_value": 12.352949, "relative_strength": -45.956802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.585721, "energy": 66.700757, "activity_lines": [ 5.491333, 5.759091, 6.520333, 7.291376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.74, "volume": 13102585, "typical_volume": 33599627.6, "trend": 8.334333, "fair_value": 12.279359, "relative_strength": -46.813081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.489132, "energy": 64.579373, "activity_lines": [ 5.543333, 5.692364, 6.381571, 7.109548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }