{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2911dd7-91ce-4d8a-8722-b04511694268", "symbol": "2353", "name": "Acer Incorporated", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.977, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.269, "architecture_energy": 14.877, "architecture_maturity": 57.974, "architecture_confidence": 76.446, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.41, "rotation_up": 24.53, "upward_expansion": 46.87, "deceleration": 84.69, "rotation_down": 32.39, "downward_expansion": 27.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.583333, 31.055882, 31.176557, 30.197337 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.299999, "trend_reference": 28.850056, "distance_from_trend": 0.119582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.881209, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046669, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.182237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.258635, "excess_performance": -0.182737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181614, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.258635, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.85048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143813650, "relative_activity": 0.781941, "balance": 1.85048, "dry_up": 0.66295, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107581, "annualized_volatility": 0.383286, "from_high_reference": -0.243965, "from_low_reference": 0.33667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.850056, "fair_value_reference": 33.881209, "structural_low": 24.744473, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030893, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012839, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.27027, "worst_return": -0.038877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061402, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.305398, "worst_return": -0.153432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059852, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.391291, "worst_return": -0.161907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 29.6, "volume": 183655625, "typical_volume": 188960157.6, "trend": 28.144482, "fair_value": 33.901835, "relative_strength": -24.470365, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.847131, "energy": 22.497274, "activity_lines": [ 31.660001, 32.603721, 30.935297, 29.686801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.049999, "volume": 97583086, "typical_volume": 187958847.9, "trend": 28.311667, "fair_value": 33.899882, "relative_strength": -24.110555, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.992624, "energy": 22.115614, "activity_lines": [ 30.923333, 32.190073, 30.990081, 29.809738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.85, "volume": 143244060, "typical_volume": 187479087.65, "trend": 28.461406, "fair_value": 33.882819, "relative_strength": -25.2052, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.690133, "energy": 19.028046, "activity_lines": [ 30.076667, 31.498685, 30.911299, 29.844469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.25, "volume": 103075412, "typical_volume": 181306807.5, "trend": 28.619148, "fair_value": 33.872733, "relative_strength": -22.477393, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.574923, "energy": 20.159266, "activity_lines": [ 29.9, 31.056614, 30.954354, 29.959862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.299999, "volume": 143813650, "typical_volume": 183918795.15, "trend": 28.850056, "fair_value": 33.881209, "relative_strength": -19.182237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.269193, "energy": 14.877096, "activity_lines": [ 30.583333, 31.055882, 31.176557, 30.197337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }