{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2944436-3df3-4ea6-aa46-62c37153ba41", "symbol": "GMAR", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.904, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.98, "architecture_energy": 73.361, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.293, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 64.38, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 55.79, "rotation_down": 28.12, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.56864, 44.411527, 44.152863, 43.640377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.8936, "trend_reference": 42.91034, "distance_from_trend": 0.046219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.646438, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.22784, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08965, "excess_performance": -0.035974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046219, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029089, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005276, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00562, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08965, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.369264, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27636, "relative_activity": 0.183434, "balance": 3.369264, "dry_up": 0.219256, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007126, "annualized_volatility": 0.048496, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.137846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.91034, "fair_value_reference": 37.646438, "structural_low": 40.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006714, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.002529, "regime_survival": 0.952381, "best_return": 0.031406, "worst_return": -0.03262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025714, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.010752, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.056284, "worst_return": -0.01588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047449, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014427, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.081563, "worst_return": 0.011264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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77.34237, "energy": 73.94385, "activity_lines": [ 44.394547, 44.28878, 44.027357, 43.504198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.8936, "volume": 27636, "typical_volume": 150659.45, "trend": 42.91034, "fair_value": 37.646438, "relative_strength": -4.22784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.979604, "energy": 73.361155, "activity_lines": [ 44.56864, 44.411527, 44.152863, 43.640377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }