{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2976d12-f563-41d3-9dfa-d2ac6f0030a0", "symbol": "XFR", "name": "iShares Floating Rate Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.73, "architecture_energy": 64.53, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.206, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.96, "rotation_up": 69.95, "upward_expansion": 90.01, "deceleration": 44.63, "rotation_down": 17.61, "downward_expansion": 12.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.037351, 20.025092, 20.004791, 19.984207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.049999, "trend_reference": 19.952682, "distance_from_trend": 0.004877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.190398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.386377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008871, "excess_performance": -0.11155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 49.197403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167800, "relative_activity": 0.956507, "balance": 49.197403, "dry_up": 0.901642, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001875, "annualized_volatility": 0.004658, "from_high_reference": -0.000499, "from_low_reference": 0.024501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.952682, "fair_value_reference": 19.190398, "structural_low": 19.863771, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 57, "median_return": 0.002997, "positive_rate": 0.947368, "directional_follow_through": 0.947368, "median_excess_return": -0.011918, "regime_survival": 0.964912, "best_return": 0.005626, "worst_return": -0.000747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008874, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.030467, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 0.013574, "worst_return": -0.001196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018563, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.030858, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.026244, "worst_return": -0.001445, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.07469, "energy": 44.161835, "activity_lines": [ 20.009275, 20.004721, 19.985219, 19.964172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.035023, "volume": 120600, "typical_volume": 173860.0, "trend": 19.938159, "fair_value": 19.16428, "relative_strength": -8.775299, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.528368, "energy": 52.576694, "activity_lines": [ 20.018393, 20.011512, 19.991728, 19.97089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.040001, "volume": 269200, "typical_volume": 179200.0, "trend": 19.945419, "fair_value": 19.177307, "relative_strength": -7.937105, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.357124, "energy": 57.18294, "activity_lines": [ 20.028034, 20.017956, 19.998084, 19.97746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 167800, "typical_volume": 175430.0, "trend": 19.952682, "fair_value": 19.190398, "relative_strength": -10.386377, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.73032, "energy": 64.530397, "activity_lines": [ 20.037351, 20.025092, 20.004791, 19.984207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }