{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b29c3c6e-448b-4e7c-9b6c-aaaa9347d8f6", "symbol": "OCUL", "name": "Ocular Therapeutix Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.03, "architecture_energy": 24.075, "architecture_maturity": 38.108, "architecture_confidence": 73.316, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.95, "rotation_up": 16.63, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 54.27, "rotation_down": 55.53, "downward_expansion": 66.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.819, 9.080727, 9.095238, 9.053505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.19, "trend_reference": 9.1135, "distance_from_trend": 0.008394, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.239936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.466269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003275, "excess_performance": -0.184179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1153, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.104739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10769566, "relative_activity": 0.787276, "balance": 1.104739, "dry_up": 0.713106, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120059, "annualized_volatility": 0.635716, "from_high_reference": -0.440998, "from_low_reference": 0.475097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.1135, "fair_value_reference": 8.239936, "structural_low": 6.2301, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.116468, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.071705, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.27762, "worst_return": -0.186501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047668, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.06538, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.729462, "worst_return": -0.219361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.125779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.131616, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.536827, "worst_return": -0.094139, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.245167, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.442279, "worst_return": 0.048055, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183272, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047668, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.2, "volume": 4292168, "typical_volume": 5394069.65, "trend": 5.314667, "fair_value": 8.588494, "relative_strength": -22.709107, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.955539, "energy": 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9.353273, 9.213714, 9.186473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.505, "volume": 8925226, "typical_volume": 14616130.15, "trend": 9.304167, "fair_value": 8.185449, "relative_strength": -26.711258, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.844649, "energy": 10.77864, "activity_lines": [ 9.208333, 9.232909, 9.156571, 9.126194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.17, "volume": 10536861, "typical_volume": 13959057.85, "trend": 9.1825, "fair_value": 8.20891, "relative_strength": -29.202077, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.861537, "energy": 25.404629, "activity_lines": [ 8.788, 9.063545, 9.075929, 9.053022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.19, "volume": 10769566, "typical_volume": 13679522.05, "trend": 9.1135, "fair_value": 8.239936, "relative_strength": -23.466269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.02976, "energy": 24.075106, "activity_lines": [ 8.819, 9.080727, 9.095238, 9.053505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }