{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2a25156-67f1-436e-8eab-e6a276f8104e", "symbol": "BMSCITH", "name": "BCAP MSCI Thailand ETF Fund", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.34, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.386, "architecture_energy": 41.398, "architecture_maturity": 88.284, "architecture_confidence": 67.628, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.73, "rotation_up": 47.31, "upward_expansion": 78.77, "deceleration": 67.11, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 5.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.634, 12.621228, 12.50292, 12.328376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.52, "trend_reference": 11.975639, "distance_from_trend": 0.045456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.092975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240467, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.26945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16141, "excess_performance": -0.030915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084087, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240467, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032192, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.934482, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 349400, "relative_activity": 0.518351, "balance": 2.934482, "dry_up": 0.740661, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02451, "annualized_volatility": 0.187812, "from_high_reference": -0.026439, "from_low_reference": 0.344791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.975639, "fair_value_reference": 10.092975, "structural_low": 10.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000894, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.000113, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.181471, "worst_return": -0.037995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011418, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.268718, "worst_return": -0.052133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019215, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018645, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.318763, "worst_return": -0.178199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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67.997987, "energy": 51.779501, "activity_lines": [ 12.641058, 12.587829, 12.402099, 12.165554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.77, "volume": 630900, "typical_volume": 770030.0, "trend": 11.790972, "fair_value": 10.068335, "relative_strength": -0.99068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.80487, "energy": 56.569993, "activity_lines": [ 12.707333, 12.633326, 12.454769, 12.235104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.6, "volume": 489100, "typical_volume": 712435.0, "trend": 11.883306, "fair_value": 10.081006, "relative_strength": -1.244496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.790045, "energy": 49.41904, "activity_lines": [ 12.698, 12.637267, 12.485202, 12.287299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.52, "volume": 349400, "typical_volume": 674060.0, "trend": 11.975639, "fair_value": 10.092975, "relative_strength": -1.26945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.386389, "energy": 41.39752, "activity_lines": [ 12.634, 12.621228, 12.50292, 12.328376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }