{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2a8c53c-5c00-4c2f-9fb4-71cdc8d0632a", "symbol": "CSAV", "name": "CI High Interest Savings ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.235, "architecture_energy": 92.51, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.277, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.12, "rotation_up": 78.29, "upward_expansion": 97.06, "deceleration": 42.11, "rotation_down": 14.62, "downward_expansion": 21.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.016144, 49.994493, 49.964389, 49.928585 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.040001, "trend_reference": 49.869254, "distance_from_trend": 0.003424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.260777, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036867, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.639474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006676, "excess_performance": -0.113745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 34.143662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99100, "relative_activity": 0.764071, "balance": 34.143662, "dry_up": 0.876638, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000606, "annualized_volatility": 0.003665, "from_high_reference": -0.0002, "from_low_reference": 0.017841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.869254, "fair_value_reference": 48.260777, "structural_low": 49.708126, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 66, "median_return": 0.00215, "positive_rate": 0.984848, "directional_follow_through": 0.984848, "median_excess_return": -0.010701, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004319, "worst_return": -0.000459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.007388, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032318, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.01334, "worst_return": 0.001301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015805, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034031, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.025876, "worst_return": 0.002663, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 49.967075, "volume": 149500, "typical_volume": 149925.0, "trend": 49.814282, "fair_value": 48.141383, "relative_strength": -9.793663, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.18623, "energy": 62.260369, "activity_lines": [ 49.957691, 49.955328, 49.924344, 49.88253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.987041, "volume": 58700, "typical_volume": 144005.0, "trend": 49.828208, "fair_value": 48.171474, "relative_strength": -9.229089, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.151961, "energy": 60.03793, "activity_lines": [ 49.965279, 49.963006, 49.933404, 49.893675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.007, "volume": 199400, "typical_volume": 139265.0, "trend": 49.84204, "fair_value": 48.201443, "relative_strength": -9.045371, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.357338, "energy": 70.572963, "activity_lines": [ 49.979386, 49.972517, 49.943301, 49.90521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.02, "volume": 97600, "typical_volume": 131915.0, "trend": 49.855644, "fair_value": 48.231177, "relative_strength": -8.19993, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.582616, "energy": 84.169824, "activity_lines": [ 49.997693, 49.982595, 49.953396, 49.916691 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.040001, "volume": 99100, "typical_volume": 129700.0, "trend": 49.869254, "fair_value": 48.260777, "relative_strength": -10.639474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.234778, "energy": 92.509866, "activity_lines": [ 50.016144, 49.994493, 49.964389, 49.928585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }