{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2b8626f-a89f-49e5-9001-5dde344ceb2a", "symbol": "FRB", "name": "Firebird Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.327, "architecture_energy": 34.655, "architecture_maturity": 52.064, "architecture_confidence": 95.284, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.8, "rotation_up": 23.61, "upward_expansion": 4.27, "deceleration": 56.2, "rotation_down": 49.42, "downward_expansion": 79.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.169167, 0.172091, 0.178976, 0.190247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.165, "trend_reference": 0.211333, "distance_from_trend": -0.219243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.145048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.599055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3125, "excess_performance": -0.376206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.219243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 224029, "relative_activity": 0.263166, "balance": 0.536722, "dry_up": 0.913723, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16317, "annualized_volatility": 0.633044, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.211333, "fair_value_reference": 0.145048, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.043726, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.644737, "worst_return": -0.392857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.096774, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.043733, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.987179, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021703, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.648936, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.342857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, 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"typical_volume": 986155.7, "trend": 0.213167, "fair_value": 0.144375, "relative_strength": -9.693603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.084374, "energy": 40.819026, "activity_lines": [ 0.1745, 0.176364, 0.183381, 0.196473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.165, "volume": 698823, "typical_volume": 934470.75, "trend": 0.213333, "fair_value": 0.144663, "relative_strength": -14.648547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.709562, "energy": 38.410027, "activity_lines": [ 0.171333, 0.174045, 0.181, 0.193366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.165, "volume": 224029, "typical_volume": 851285.55, "trend": 0.211333, "fair_value": 0.145048, "relative_strength": -17.599055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.327107, "energy": 34.654702, "activity_lines": [ 0.169167, 0.172091, 0.178976, 0.190247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }