{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2bc22db-759c-4ee8-9ef9-a92300cef88b", "symbol": "5LY", "name": "Marco Polo Marine Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.358, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.479, "architecture_energy": 42.005, "architecture_maturity": 26.217, "architecture_confidence": 87.95, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.64, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 5.35, "deceleration": 53.99, "rotation_down": 55.16, "downward_expansion": 76.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.132733, 0.134327, 0.144257, 0.146993 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.133, "trend_reference": 0.149429, "distance_from_trend": -0.109943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.078136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.702161, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.465638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060343, "excess_performance": -0.215178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.702161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.676492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.61043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060343, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.046416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161743900, "relative_activity": 1.140866, "balance": 1.046416, "dry_up": 1.172068, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109312, "annualized_volatility": 0.451274, "from_high_reference": -0.324873, "from_low_reference": 1.31675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.149429, "fair_value_reference": 0.078136, "structural_low": 0.124, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.022594, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.102049, "worst_return": -0.142866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.024861, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.652149, "worst_return": -0.061216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.305379, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.191712, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55101, "worst_return": 0.059747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071438, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181818, 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"close": 0.136, "volume": 196554300, "typical_volume": 147859790.0, "trend": 0.151219, "fair_value": 0.077067, "relative_strength": -8.490539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.517635, "energy": 61.358967, "activity_lines": [ 0.132933, 0.138, 0.147486, 0.149274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.133, "volume": 121975800, "typical_volume": 145562355.0, "trend": 0.150142, "fair_value": 0.077602, "relative_strength": -11.803639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.122352, "energy": 48.963373, "activity_lines": [ 0.1328, 0.135818, 0.145838, 0.148099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.133, "volume": 161743900, "typical_volume": 141772975.0, "trend": 0.149429, "fair_value": 0.078136, "relative_strength": -13.465638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.478792, "energy": 42.004552, "activity_lines": [ 0.132733, 0.134327, 0.144257, 0.146993 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }