{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2bebff3-af96-4f64-a8c0-3715c9b308b7", "symbol": "EMXF", "name": "ISHARES ESG ADVANCED MSCI EM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.486, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.386, "architecture_energy": 21.599, "architecture_maturity": 59.828, "architecture_confidence": 84.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.62, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 57.12, "deceleration": 88.02, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 18.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.628173, 56.048152, 55.629014, 54.306829 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 56.6191, "trend_reference": 52.674496, "distance_from_trend": 0.074886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.881959, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.419667, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.980299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.124882, "excess_performance": -0.062572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074886, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.419667, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009803, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124882, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.992235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36988, "relative_activity": 0.922019, "balance": 0.992235, "dry_up": 1.300999, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048618, "annualized_volatility": 0.254623, "from_high_reference": -0.056977, "from_low_reference": 0.359706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.674496, "fair_value_reference": 39.881959, "structural_low": 45.85754, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001872, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015975, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.134827, "worst_return": -0.044965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026362, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.063725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.274332, "worst_return": -0.001851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035173, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.139666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093142, "worst_return": 0.012183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.123568, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004026, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027367, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077251, "active": false }, { 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"direction": 44.924244, "energy": 31.876108, "activity_lines": [ 56.348353, 56.483873, 55.064275, 53.656003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.6608, "volume": 61969, "typical_volume": 38617.55, "trend": 52.106689, "fair_value": 39.588325, "relative_strength": 3.272806, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.486758, "energy": 22.686481, "activity_lines": [ 55.59502, 56.204403, 55.209656, 53.838971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.1173, "volume": 63196, "typical_volume": 39930.25, "trend": 52.377911, "fair_value": 39.727512, "relative_strength": 3.425786, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.743416, "energy": 19.030349, "activity_lines": [ 55.30814, 55.994601, 55.366225, 54.033204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.6191, "volume": 36988, "typical_volume": 40116.3, "trend": 52.674496, "fair_value": 39.881959, "relative_strength": 0.980299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.385618, "energy": 21.599041, "activity_lines": [ 55.628173, 56.048152, 55.629014, 54.306829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }