{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2c32b2f-7c3c-4adf-b095-4f6a9404553e", "symbol": "4110", "name": "Batic Investments and Logistics Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.115, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.378, "architecture_energy": 54.595, "architecture_maturity": 5.702, "architecture_confidence": 70.208, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.1, "rotation_up": 17.27, "upward_expansion": 29.35, "deceleration": 46.44, "rotation_down": 66.27, "downward_expansion": 54.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.038, 2.084545, 2.130667, 2.125935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.07, "trend_reference": 2.115, "distance_from_trend": -0.021277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.585064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.146754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004854, "excess_performance": 0.036684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004854, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.707913, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21499663, "relative_activity": 0.622904, "balance": 0.707913, "dry_up": 0.61658, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043478, "annualized_volatility": 0.228063, "from_high_reference": -0.1375, "from_low_reference": 0.106952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.115, "fair_value_reference": 2.585064, "structural_low": 1.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017327, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026738, "worst_return": -0.093333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033003, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05615, "worst_return": -0.246667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.049505, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192068, "worst_return": -0.253333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062657, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.143396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 2.25, "volume": 11454713, "typical_volume": 8334545.5, "trend": 2.3176, "fair_value": 2.342618, "relative_strength": -7.581413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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2.146194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.05, "volume": 25962221, "typical_volume": 35198108.55, "trend": 2.113, "fair_value": 2.590385, "relative_strength": -2.689232, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.211561, "energy": 12.493216, "activity_lines": [ 2.118667, 2.147636, 2.163238, 2.142194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.02, "volume": 16651228, "typical_volume": 34281407.8, "trend": 2.114333, "fair_value": 2.588846, "relative_strength": -4.528727, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.987488, "energy": 42.609146, "activity_lines": [ 2.076667, 2.122, 2.151714, 2.136194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 21012376, "typical_volume": 33955743.8, "trend": 2.114667, "fair_value": 2.586667, "relative_strength": -3.356501, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.98965, "energy": 55.685249, "activity_lines": [ 2.038667, 2.095455, 2.138, 2.128817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.07, "volume": 21499663, "typical_volume": 34515189.75, "trend": 2.115, "fair_value": 2.585064, "relative_strength": -2.146754, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.377748, "energy": 54.594706, "activity_lines": [ 2.038, 2.084545, 2.130667, 2.125935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }