{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2c533c5-0a15-4958-82b1-5b6b09b111e0", "symbol": "MTCH1", "name": "Match Group, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 61.173, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.266, "architecture_energy": 45.225, "architecture_maturity": 66.041, "architecture_confidence": 70.539, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.1, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 46.66, "rotation_down": 30.37, "downward_expansion": 61.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 610.0, 609.055189, 611.00774, 614.095303 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 610.0, "trend_reference": 617.967301, "distance_from_trend": -0.012893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 625.482283, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024753, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.086296, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02478, "excess_performance": 0.029887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024753, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000506, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02478, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.874016, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 7.874016, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002776, "annualized_volatility": 0.034576, "from_high_reference": -0.115391, "from_low_reference": 0.019476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 617.967301, "fair_value_reference": 625.482283, "structural_low": 606.4948, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.393939, "median_excess_return": 0.000203, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.301887, "worst_return": -0.31895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.100125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087614, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.281967, "worst_return": -0.301625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022903, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006539, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228013, "worst_return": -0.476357, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 610.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 63.6, "trend": 619.504638, "fair_value": 628.301967, "relative_strength": -5.222254, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.096634, "energy": 63.571251, "activity_lines": [ 608.620333, 608.634407, 612.650869, 615.836135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 610.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 63.6, "trend": 618.994303, "fair_value": 627.682003, "relative_strength": -4.854757, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.454729, "energy": 56.705574, "activity_lines": [ 609.31256, 608.623153, 612.02935, 615.222933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 610.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 63.6, "trend": 618.483967, "fair_value": 626.582143, "relative_strength": -5.605538, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.915057, "energy": 46.110405, "activity_lines": [ 609.771787, 608.739171, 611.481641, 614.642655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 610.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 63.6, "trend": 617.967301, "fair_value": 625.482283, "relative_strength": -5.086296, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.26604, "energy": 45.224778, "activity_lines": [ 610.0, 609.055189, 611.00774, 614.095303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }