{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2c7c9ff-c7a6-4a10-bf1d-a00881a33c4a", "symbol": "FNDA", "name": "SCHWAB FUNDAMENTAL U.S. SMALL COMPANY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.934, "architecture_energy": 51.509, "architecture_maturity": 61.448, "architecture_confidence": 61.371, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 50.19, "upward_expansion": 78.49, "deceleration": 68.54, "rotation_down": 26.2, "downward_expansion": 7.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.6338, 37.511141, 36.826744, 36.05232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.22, "trend_reference": 35.194444, "distance_from_trend": 0.085967, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.290229, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304872, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.022165, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.099664, "excess_performance": -0.025961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085967, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020222, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099664, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2249666, "relative_activity": 0.465492, "balance": 0.296393, "dry_up": 0.433072, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030134, "annualized_volatility": 0.15309, "from_high_reference": -0.00624, "from_low_reference": 0.322822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.194444, "fair_value_reference": 29.290229, "structural_low": 31.372307, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.00712, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.006873, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.066829, "worst_return": -0.08401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006518, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.03738, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.161563, "worst_return": -0.07726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051719, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.045898, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155169, "worst_return": 0.026255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.21783, "energy": 72.715784, "activity_lines": [ 37.447753, 36.915195, 35.96505, 35.320732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.65, "volume": 1997787, "typical_volume": 5120581.95, "trend": 34.673326, "fair_value": 29.054443, "relative_strength": 4.977611, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.560201, "energy": 72.117557, "activity_lines": [ 37.545464, 37.128088, 36.214455, 35.525031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.34, "volume": 1823156, "typical_volume": 5026261.2, "trend": 34.849291, "fair_value": 29.130041, "relative_strength": 4.587283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.468952, "energy": 53.721012, "activity_lines": [ 37.504067, 37.253281, 36.418606, 35.697075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.165, "volume": 2301324, "typical_volume": 4925740.45, "trend": 35.029405, "fair_value": 29.20569, "relative_strength": 2.826742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.672239, "energy": 46.393211, "activity_lines": [ 37.373933, 37.300463, 36.584851, 35.846475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.22, "volume": 2249666, "typical_volume": 4832872.8, "trend": 35.194444, "fair_value": 29.290229, "relative_strength": 2.022165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.933569, "energy": 51.508769, "activity_lines": [ 37.6338, 37.511141, 36.826744, 36.05232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }