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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.398, "architecture_energy": 92.761, "architecture_maturity": 13.192, "architecture_confidence": 76.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.09, "rotation_up": 78.87, "upward_expansion": 92.97, "deceleration": 47.51, "rotation_down": 8.13, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.64, 3.547273, 3.466667, 3.406925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.7, "trend_reference": 3.318667, "distance_from_trend": 0.114906, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.813654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.363567, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.625877, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.149068, "excess_performance": 0.095757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.363567, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071321, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026259, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.260179, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149068, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.74, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022869, "annualized_volatility": 0.266606, "from_high_reference": -0.459854, "from_low_reference": 0.456693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.318667, "fair_value_reference": 5.813654, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the 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-16.27558, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.163188, "energy": 77.912096, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.369455, 3.32019, 3.273161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 3.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.7, "trend": 3.226667, "fair_value": 5.824936, "relative_strength": -15.303539, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.621311, "energy": 75.236788, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.379636, 3.332476, 3.285419 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21.45, "trend": 3.243333, "fair_value": 5.8225, "relative_strength": -13.239308, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.836208, "energy": 66.05432, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.388, 3.34381, 3.296602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21.45, "trend": 3.256667, "fair_value": 5.820064, "relative_strength": -12.734684, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.967487, "energy": 47.967946, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.394182, 3.354286, 3.30671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.4, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 16.65, "trend": 3.26, "fair_value": 5.817628, "relative_strength": -9.183304, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.163502, "energy": 43.781172, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.398182, 3.363905, 3.315957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.4, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 15.4, "trend": 3.263333, "fair_value": 5.815192, "relative_strength": -7.324002, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.12968, "energy": 39.019183, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.4, 3.371524, 3.324989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.7, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 13.5, "trend": 3.276667, "fair_value": 5.814679, "relative_strength": 2.385213, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.119622, "energy": 70.250111, "activity_lines": [ 3.5, 3.454545, 3.405143, 3.353161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 13.75, "trend": 3.29, "fair_value": 5.814167, "relative_strength": 2.900781, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.948106, "energy": 93.074174, "activity_lines": [ 3.58, 3.503636, 3.436857, 3.380473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 3.318667, "fair_value": 5.813654, "relative_strength": 2.625877, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.398403, "energy": 92.760945, "activity_lines": [ 3.64, 3.547273, 3.466667, 3.406925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }