{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2ce79cd-80bf-48b1-90fd-1a917cc08db2", "symbol": "PSFD", "name": "PACER SWAN SOS FLEX (JANUARY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.489, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.483, "architecture_energy": 81.324, "architecture_maturity": 44.325, "architecture_confidence": 82.571, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 65.95, "upward_expansion": 92.03, "deceleration": 47.38, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 16.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.182447, 39.983709, 39.664077, 39.140003 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.631, "trend_reference": 38.543837, "distance_from_trend": 0.05415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.342077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21861, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.874908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079177, "excess_performance": -0.046448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024571, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001041, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.023194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3291, "relative_activity": 0.418045, "balance": 3.023194, "dry_up": 0.361709, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010018, "annualized_volatility": 0.07919, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.150368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.543837, "fair_value_reference": 33.342077, "structural_low": 35.7725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.01103, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.003562, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.033655, "worst_return": -0.0392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036881, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.010921, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.063839, "worst_return": -0.0176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025362, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.100461, "worst_return": 0.026966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.055992, "energy": 77.928194, "activity_lines": [ 39.772913, 39.673396, 39.131208, 38.681876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.8725, "volume": 2016, "typical_volume": 8455.55, "trend": 38.281173, "fair_value": 33.091969, "relative_strength": -2.166849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.472153, "energy": 79.000894, "activity_lines": [ 39.830307, 39.725282, 39.261597, 38.790112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.7755, "volume": 3392, "typical_volume": 8345.5, "trend": 38.360523, "fair_value": 33.171328, "relative_strength": -1.753392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.039432, "energy": 77.654304, "activity_lines": [ 39.83226, 39.748576, 39.371851, 38.88652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.1088, "volume": 2691, "typical_volume": 7835.9, "trend": 38.450297, "fair_value": 33.255075, "relative_strength": -1.900242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.609279, "energy": 79.307801, "activity_lines": [ 39.94628, 39.823825, 39.501064, 38.999312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.631, "volume": 3291, "typical_volume": 7872.35, "trend": 38.543837, "fair_value": 33.342077, "relative_strength": -3.874908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.482868, "energy": 81.323726, "activity_lines": [ 40.182447, 39.983709, 39.664077, 39.140003 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }