{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2d6216b-d6a5-4ede-8003-ea7bd774b86a", "symbol": "ZNC", "name": "Zenith Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.385, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.346, "architecture_energy": 19.553, "architecture_maturity": 46.534, "architecture_confidence": 91.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 28.9, "upward_expansion": 58.6, "deceleration": 89.98, "rotation_down": 26.73, "downward_expansion": 15.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.089733, 0.091564, 0.087443, 0.084845 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.096, "trend_reference": 0.083367, "distance_from_trend": 0.151539, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.076654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252383, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.753069, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.129412, "excess_performance": 0.065706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151539, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.289579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037531, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.894963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 864323, "relative_activity": 0.263326, "balance": 4.894963, "dry_up": 2.939814, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137821, "annualized_volatility": 0.792105, "from_high_reference": -0.466667, "from_low_reference": 1.341463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.083367, "fair_value_reference": 0.076654, "structural_low": 0.058, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.052776, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057487, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.011628, "worst_return": -0.169811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.106061, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09434, "worst_return": -0.127907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.056604, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.056604, "worst_return": -0.056604, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.515152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.26506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.068, "volume": 1335135, "typical_volume": 1176205.25, "trend": 0.1494, "fair_value": 0.225949, "relative_strength": -67.498956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.083333, "fair_value": 0.076596, "relative_strength": 7.25321, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.807516, "energy": 30.167765, "activity_lines": [ 0.092133, 0.092145, 0.085152, 0.083669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.092, "volume": 33215015, "typical_volume": 3434592.7, "trend": 0.083333, "fair_value": 0.076577, "relative_strength": 7.231244, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.333333, "energy": 24.064193, "activity_lines": [ 0.091533, 0.092745, 0.0862, 0.084228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 1735116, "typical_volume": 3323835.6, "trend": 0.0831, "fair_value": 0.076513, "relative_strength": -9.825226, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.746467, "energy": 16.308407, "activity_lines": [ 0.087467, 0.090764, 0.086052, 0.084013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.096, "volume": 864323, "typical_volume": 3282329.2, "trend": 0.083367, "fair_value": 0.076654, "relative_strength": 3.753069, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.346253, "energy": 19.552691, "activity_lines": [ 0.089733, 0.091564, 0.087443, 0.084845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }