{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2d64412-478f-4507-adfc-b3b0b46ab2d0", "symbol": "300731", "name": "Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.829, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.739, "architecture_energy": 71.928, "architecture_maturity": 22.209, "architecture_confidence": 71.058, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.95, "rotation_up": 16.05, "upward_expansion": 24.89, "deceleration": 43.04, "rotation_down": 75.41, "downward_expansion": 66.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.933334, 43.559637, 49.698313, 50.384903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.549999, "trend_reference": 49.910057, "distance_from_trend": -0.227611, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.99624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.606502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.181805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227624, "excess_performance": -0.235024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.606502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.0435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.44443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867472, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36532330, "relative_activity": 0.894805, "balance": 0.867472, "dry_up": 0.907255, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210852, "annualized_volatility": 0.779187, "from_high_reference": -0.4545, "from_low_reference": 0.587901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.910057, "fair_value_reference": 23.99624, "structural_low": 28.559999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.04012, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041743, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.00418, "worst_return": -0.129087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075651, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.135773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.048144, "worst_return": -0.103157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.101629, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038616, "worst_return": -0.164642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152242, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.724864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086937, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.613865, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.343533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.216472, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 14.314659, "volume": 45148053, "typical_volume": 30102928.75, "trend": 13.462057, "fair_value": 17.513392, "relative_strength": 6.221524, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.194182, "energy": 36.106213, "activity_lines": [ 49.467333, 54.068577, 54.85778, 53.312863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.970001, "volume": 38158575, "typical_volume": 46043487.85, "trend": 50.295551, "fair_value": 23.736448, "relative_strength": -16.675415, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.678847, "energy": 62.619368, "activity_lines": [ 43.4, 50.005826, 53.046256, 52.321569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.690001, "volume": 42816424, "typical_volume": 43955089.75, "trend": 49.962773, "fair_value": 23.840885, "relative_strength": -23.643272, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.062152, "energy": 77.133057, "activity_lines": [ 38.134667, 45.824208, 50.99921, 51.121211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.549999, "volume": 36532330, "typical_volume": 40827142.2, "trend": 49.910057, "fair_value": 23.99624, "relative_strength": -12.181805, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.738628, "energy": 71.927522, "activity_lines": [ 36.933334, 43.559637, 49.698313, 50.384903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }