{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2d743e0-3936-49dc-9958-e20c9f8af445", "symbol": "GYLD", "name": "ARROW DOW JONES GLOBAL YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.089, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.201, "architecture_energy": 39.337, "architecture_maturity": 36.473, "architecture_confidence": 78.376, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.01, "rotation_up": 55.47, "upward_expansion": 78.52, "deceleration": 54.29, "rotation_down": 17.16, "downward_expansion": 5.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.311532, 14.239802, 14.141616, 14.025421 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.2751, "trend_reference": 13.846971, "distance_from_trend": 0.030919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.723349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217664, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.644617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066075, "excess_performance": -0.05955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034859, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217664, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.364371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30593, "relative_activity": 0.360644, "balance": 1.364371, "dry_up": 0.811656, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030051, "annualized_volatility": 0.089146, "from_high_reference": -0.02256, "from_low_reference": 0.164953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.846971, "fair_value_reference": 11.723349, "structural_low": 13.290838, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.007684, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.012453, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.041834, "worst_return": -0.041901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024449, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027546, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049981, "worst_return": -0.042214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041267, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.092108, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.082382, "worst_return": -0.093291, "sufficient": true }, { 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14.062528, 13.972961, 13.841262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.107486, "volume": 123460, "typical_volume": 82371.3, "trend": 13.65928, "fair_value": 11.606201, "relative_strength": -3.787412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.3125, "energy": 30.580198, "activity_lines": [ 14.117116, 14.070674, 13.995519, 13.872998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.29, "volume": 93861, "typical_volume": 84424.35, "trend": 13.709864, "fair_value": 11.635081, "relative_strength": -0.937611, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.333717, "energy": 39.339754, "activity_lines": [ 14.184808, 14.11448, 14.03322, 13.913689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.3, "volume": 86599, "typical_volume": 83868.55, "trend": 13.757651, "fair_value": 11.663782, "relative_strength": -0.238379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.213436, "energy": 43.241454, "activity_lines": [ 14.239827, 14.156497, 14.069439, 13.951763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4275, "volume": 64354, "typical_volume": 85680.7, "trend": 13.803239, "fair_value": 11.694127, "relative_strength": -0.364007, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.676166, "energy": 45.864451, "activity_lines": [ 14.312251, 14.214058, 14.115155, 13.994979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2751, "volume": 30593, "typical_volume": 84828.75, "trend": 13.846971, "fair_value": 11.723349, "relative_strength": -4.644617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.201297, "energy": 39.336551, "activity_lines": [ 14.311532, 14.239802, 14.141616, 14.025421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }