{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2dfb4ab-8d30-43b3-bd52-3c8ca9d74cd7", "symbol": "ZB9", "name": "Union Steel Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.471, "architecture_energy": 91.766, "architecture_maturity": 70.499, "architecture_confidence": 93.2, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 78.66, "downward_expansion": 99.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.478667, 0.483455, 0.49069, 0.499473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.475, "trend_reference": 0.517, "distance_from_trend": -0.081238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.517775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.082612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.446219, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188034, "excess_performance": -0.342869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.082612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188034, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.139683, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3000, "relative_activity": 0.107875, "balance": 0.139683, "dry_up": 0.350593, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016194, "annualized_volatility": 0.208667, "from_high_reference": -0.264729, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.517, "fair_value_reference": 0.517775, "structural_low": 0.475, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.009803, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.02349, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.174317, "worst_return": -0.114035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013057, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336956, "worst_return": -0.158333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.210526, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.123986, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217822, "worst_return": -0.183333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.907767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007752, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038759, 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0.497909, 0.503595, 0.517871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40475.0, "trend": 0.535, "fair_value": 0.510254, "relative_strength": -23.835808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.950349, "energy": 53.682085, "activity_lines": [ 0.492333, 0.496091, 0.50131, 0.514731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.49, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 38910.0, "trend": 0.532, "fair_value": 0.511818, "relative_strength": -26.289756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.706755, "energy": 48.956953, "activity_lines": [ 0.491, 0.494364, 0.499357, 0.511828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.485, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 38295.0, "trend": 0.5285, "fair_value": 0.51331, "relative_strength": -26.765832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.962034, "energy": 90.726701, "activity_lines": [ 0.488667, 0.492, 0.497262, 0.508796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.475, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 36555.0, "trend": 0.525, "fair_value": 0.514739, "relative_strength": -28.567021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.943666, "energy": 98.188591, "activity_lines": [ 0.483667, 0.488364, 0.494619, 0.505344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.48, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": 30870.0, "trend": 0.521, "fair_value": 0.516336, "relative_strength": -27.605518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.869275, "energy": 88.806092, "activity_lines": [ 0.481667, 0.486182, 0.492786, 0.502441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.475, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 27810.0, "trend": 0.517, "fair_value": 0.517775, "relative_strength": -28.446219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.47135, "energy": 91.765752, "activity_lines": [ 0.478667, 0.483455, 0.49069, 0.499473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }