{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2eb4960-6cae-41c1-9eb7-39561c6ba64f", "symbol": "ALPRG", "name": "Prologue S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.126, "architecture_energy": 22.297, "architecture_maturity": 63.289, "architecture_confidence": 94.15, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.08, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 51.92, "deceleration": 93.6, "rotation_down": 34.54, "downward_expansion": 17.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.302667, 0.314691, 0.311952, 0.297578 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.306, "trend_reference": 0.280267, "distance_from_trend": 0.091817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.237706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.654858, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.2, "excess_performance": 0.146689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091817, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.076549, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007801, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.730762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 406935, "relative_activity": 0.654048, "balance": 2.730762, "dry_up": 0.436685, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104324, "annualized_volatility": 0.406781, "from_high_reference": -0.194737, "from_low_reference": 0.342105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.280267, "fair_value_reference": 0.237706, "structural_low": 0.228, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040323, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.02965, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.10084, "worst_return": -0.107143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027094, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.06886, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.085934, "worst_return": -0.172932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048398, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.396617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.119737, 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"2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060976, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119149, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 625016.65, "trend": 0.2749, "fair_value": 0.237591, "relative_strength": 10.566646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.917634, "energy": 38.307226, "activity_lines": [ 0.331, 0.334109, 0.307381, 0.291172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.296, "volume": 230422, "typical_volume": 616502.6, "trend": 0.276, "fair_value": 0.237642, "relative_strength": 9.562704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.221315, "energy": 26.481137, "activity_lines": [ 0.3156, 0.328873, 0.308419, 0.292533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.296, "volume": 236561, "typical_volume": 617363.7, "trend": 0.2771, "fair_value": 0.237629, "relative_strength": 8.836178, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.316065, "energy": 28.370009, "activity_lines": [ 0.305067, 0.323145, 0.309214, 0.293824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.308, "volume": 212869, "typical_volume": 610544.45, "trend": 0.2787, "fair_value": 0.237674, "relative_strength": 11.157718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.611867, "energy": 27.635118, "activity_lines": [ 0.303133, 0.319309, 0.310857, 0.295817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.306, "volume": 406935, "typical_volume": 622179.5, "trend": 0.280267, "fair_value": 0.237706, "relative_strength": 7.654858, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.125739, "energy": 22.297178, "activity_lines": [ 0.302667, 0.314691, 0.311952, 0.297578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }