{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2f3a700-90a0-4621-b0bb-b253787467be", "symbol": "IBM", "name": "International Business Machines Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.762, "architecture_energy": 43.458, "architecture_maturity": 24.504, "architecture_confidence": 54.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.61, "rotation_up": 11.47, "upward_expansion": 14.76, "deceleration": 57.78, "rotation_down": 69.35, "downward_expansion": 69.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.449998, 211.652727, 215.709851, 215.343922 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 202.75, "trend_reference": 218.572586, "distance_from_trend": -0.072391, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 193.745274, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.898202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181258, "excess_performance": -0.355505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046477, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.206404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1361, "relative_activity": 1.349529, "balance": 3.206404, "dry_up": 2.081061, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120099, "annualized_volatility": 0.671525, "from_high_reference": -0.261694, "from_low_reference": 0.148335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 218.572586, "fair_value_reference": 193.745274, "structural_low": 176.559998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010082, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002186, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.123424, "worst_return": -0.075948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048648, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128701, "worst_return": -0.136217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.261244, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.241819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.380114, "worst_return": -0.038375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038497, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094127, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.71725, "energy": 11.915792, "activity_lines": [ 225.853332, 230.351818, 221.97869, 220.902317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 188.059998, "volume": 2417, "typical_volume": 895.4, "trend": 222.225946, "fair_value": 192.749644, "relative_strength": -32.020022, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.890834, "energy": 21.223432, "activity_lines": [ 212.243998, 222.914727, 219.222777, 218.55766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.059998, "volume": 1966, "typical_volume": 958.55, "trend": 220.397002, "fair_value": 193.208124, "relative_strength": -30.784028, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.642219, "energy": 41.855471, "activity_lines": [ 201.197331, 215.838363, 216.80429, 216.482438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.75, "volume": 1361, "typical_volume": 1008.5, "trend": 218.572586, "fair_value": 193.745274, "relative_strength": -27.898202, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.761625, "energy": 43.458287, "activity_lines": [ 197.449998, 211.652727, 215.709851, 215.343922 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }