{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b2fc621a-8fee-4688-bfe2-9987b3a56002", "symbol": "EH5", "name": "United Overseas Australia Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.408, "architecture_energy": 25.636, "architecture_maturity": 32.155, "architecture_confidence": 44.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.55, "rotation_up": 38.08, "upward_expansion": 66.44, "deceleration": 69.39, "rotation_down": 22.91, "downward_expansion": 6.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.605667, 0.604091, 0.603816, 0.594263 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.605, "trend_reference": 0.584065, "distance_from_trend": 0.035843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.466496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.150147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031007, "excess_performance": -0.123828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041056, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6400, "relative_activity": 0.822622, "balance": 0.889105, "dry_up": 1.674165, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045137, "annualized_volatility": 0.550004, "from_high_reference": -0.090226, "from_low_reference": 0.325336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.584065, "fair_value_reference": 0.466496, "structural_low": 0.489812, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.001426, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.075269, "worst_return": -0.010638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024528, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289713, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.136158, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003206, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.191785, "worst_return": 0.010753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.345482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09009, "active": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 31.776407, "energy": 17.928251, "activity_lines": [ 0.597667, 0.602364, 0.597216, 0.588788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.61, "volume": 35100, "typical_volume": 7875.0, "trend": 0.579937, "fair_value": 0.463649, "relative_strength": -5.793388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.782781, "energy": 21.364541, "activity_lines": [ 0.601, 0.602636, 0.599685, 0.590882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.61, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7625.0, "trend": 0.58265, "fair_value": 0.465088, "relative_strength": -6.352064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.893271, "energy": 24.515777, "activity_lines": [ 0.604, 0.603909, 0.602159, 0.592821 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.605, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 7780.0, "trend": 0.584065, "fair_value": 0.466496, "relative_strength": -8.150147, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.408054, "energy": 25.636017, "activity_lines": [ 0.605667, 0.604091, 0.603816, 0.594263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }