{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b306392e-73c3-4db8-aab1-a2f27f3f43e2", "symbol": "STRA", "name": "Strategic Education Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 59.887, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.951, "architecture_energy": 15.747, "architecture_maturity": 55.214, "architecture_confidence": 56.715, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.67, "rotation_up": 43.95, "upward_expansion": 47.36, "deceleration": 34.73, "rotation_down": 30.59, "downward_expansion": 12.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.104, 80.28, 79.502153, 79.482036 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.88, "trend_reference": 79.686138, "distance_from_trend": 0.065179, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.332079, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.718641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058914, "excess_performance": -0.12854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065179, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006286, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058914, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.28851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1547703, "relative_activity": 1.091401, "balance": 1.28851, "dry_up": 1.202831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073542, "annualized_volatility": 0.357714, "from_high_reference": -0.054051, "from_low_reference": 0.227098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.686138, "fair_value_reference": 85.332079, "structural_low": 69.171302, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001424, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006316, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.177096, "worst_return": -0.087205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.035755, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005801, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.24166, "worst_return": -0.295017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013768, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.11298, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.343027, "worst_return": -0.229882, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -12.510218, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.023759, "energy": 20.095189, "activity_lines": [ 78.511333, 78.574545, 78.678865, 78.975809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.0, "volume": 2347406, "typical_volume": 1431162.65, "trend": 79.593093, "fair_value": 85.225598, "relative_strength": -5.492191, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.709742, "energy": 4.090373, "activity_lines": [ 79.432667, 79.197273, 78.957777, 79.140945 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.88, "volume": 1547703, "typical_volume": 1418088.8, "trend": 79.686138, "fair_value": 85.332079, "relative_strength": -6.718641, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.950901, "energy": 15.747044, "activity_lines": [ 81.104, 80.28, 79.502153, 79.482036 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }