{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3068d02-2a62-43b3-a5c6-bb299bb26a0c", "symbol": "MSA", "name": "MSA Safety", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.112, "architecture_energy": 66.499, "architecture_maturity": 10.475, "architecture_confidence": 78.741, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.24, "rotation_up": 73.68, "upward_expansion": 55.46, "deceleration": 17.9, "rotation_down": 14.28, "downward_expansion": 28.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 184.574667, 177.923818, 173.136114, 173.411331 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 194.19, "trend_reference": 175.589103, "distance_from_trend": 0.105934, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 168.243482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.145009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011307, "excess_performance": -0.114318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01145, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124522, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011307, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.639354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2151035, "relative_activity": 1.481854, "balance": 1.639354, "dry_up": 1.047094, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048249, "annualized_volatility": 0.229017, "from_high_reference": -0.065127, "from_low_reference": 0.296952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.589103, "fair_value_reference": 168.243482, "structural_low": 155.78, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075898, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.039811, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.149982, "worst_return": -0.057678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070278, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281826, "worst_return": -0.061162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.135596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187869, "worst_return": -0.031642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -9.977244, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.947398, "energy": 18.029442, "activity_lines": [ 169.268, 167.592832, 168.156003, 171.174239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 171.03, "volume": 967611, "typical_volume": 1332408.95, "trend": 173.525871, "fair_value": 167.884621, "relative_strength": -7.999801, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.733956, "energy": 16.236299, "activity_lines": [ 170.489333, 168.225091, 168.21732, 171.038722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.64, "volume": 1311283, "typical_volume": 1356782.75, "trend": 173.916627, "fair_value": 167.971636, "relative_strength": -5.169128, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.892691, "energy": 13.432831, "activity_lines": [ 172.171333, 169.484182, 168.735617, 171.110602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.27, "volume": 1649846, "typical_volume": 1397776.15, "trend": 174.882073, "fair_value": 168.101305, "relative_strength": 2.409463, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.768342, "energy": 47.932528, "activity_lines": [ 178.38, 173.523273, 170.781597, 172.165658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 194.19, "volume": 2151035, "typical_volume": 1451583.5, "trend": 175.589103, "fair_value": 168.243482, "relative_strength": 1.145009, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.112411, "energy": 66.498842, "activity_lines": [ 184.574667, 177.923818, 173.136114, 173.411331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }