{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3174546-de60-4204-8565-34c7911b157f", "symbol": "BAFN", "name": "Bayfirst Financial Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.858, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.094, "architecture_energy": 20.946, "architecture_maturity": 57.304, "architecture_confidence": 70.298, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.34, "rotation_up": 42.14, "upward_expansion": 26.62, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 16.08, "downward_expansion": 46.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.211333, 5.84, 5.955048, 6.113011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.34, "trend_reference": 6.3025, "distance_from_trend": 0.00595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.15873, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.431835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.588634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06213, "excess_performance": -0.249584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.431835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573088, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158561, "relative_activity": 0.939134, "balance": 0.573088, "dry_up": 0.649735, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130386, "annualized_volatility": 0.599305, "from_high_reference": -0.467227, "from_low_reference": 0.488577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.3025, "fair_value_reference": 11.15873, "structural_low": 4.2591, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.008227, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.021856, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.334471, "worst_return": -0.243697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03091, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.109016, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.155501, "worst_return": -0.301681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.06213, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.112147, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.103826, "worst_return": -0.431933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-27.326545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.64804, "energy": 18.456628, "activity_lines": [ 5.670667, 5.507091, 5.892333, 6.096602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.63, "volume": 97109, "typical_volume": 170864.6, "trend": 6.337167, "fair_value": 11.205234, "relative_strength": -18.738144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.561535, "energy": 16.496264, "activity_lines": [ 6.044, 5.702091, 5.939929, 6.112828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.34, "volume": 158561, "typical_volume": 168837.4, "trend": 6.3025, "fair_value": 11.15873, "relative_strength": -24.588634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.094414, "energy": 20.946295, "activity_lines": [ 6.211333, 5.84, 5.955048, 6.113011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }