{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b31b64bf-1a43-4be3-8601-0ce231a4581b", "symbol": "002571", "name": "Anhui Deli Household Glass Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.509, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.992, "architecture_energy": 25.009, "architecture_maturity": 31.106, "architecture_confidence": 40.928, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.44, "rotation_up": 21.45, "upward_expansion": 13.69, "deceleration": 65.0, "rotation_down": 40.66, "downward_expansion": 63.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.718, 10.665091, 11.037714, 11.286323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.25, "trend_reference": 11.629667, "distance_from_trend": -0.032646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.978654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.612059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.680707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074074, "excess_performance": -0.081474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032646, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.612059, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066807, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.769948, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32270844, "relative_activity": 0.993743, "balance": 1.769948, "dry_up": 0.968919, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094359, "annualized_volatility": 0.298677, "from_high_reference": -0.169129, "from_low_reference": 0.939655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.629667, "fair_value_reference": 6.978654, "structural_low": 9.22, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.030296, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": 0.039863, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.277344, "worst_return": -0.195609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032051, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.021162, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241147, "worst_return": -0.167756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069322, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.086707, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.440806, "worst_return": -0.225443, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.25, "volume": 33957400, "typical_volume": 34638668.95, "trend": 11.627333, "fair_value": 6.899295, "relative_strength": 3.360998, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.390196, "energy": 69.926593, "activity_lines": [ 10.352, 10.842909, 11.220714, 11.459097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.35, "volume": 31261190, "typical_volume": 33719613.45, "trend": 11.644, "fair_value": 6.921795, "relative_strength": 3.267049, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.563558, "energy": 62.655839, "activity_lines": [ 10.326667, 10.690364, 11.111, 11.376688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.64, "volume": 28369400, "typical_volume": 32558695.75, "trend": 11.646667, "fair_value": 6.947564, "relative_strength": 7.019491, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.735012, "energy": 41.468048, "activity_lines": [ 10.431333, 10.611273, 11.041238, 11.311914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.25, "volume": 32270844, "typical_volume": 32474032.95, "trend": 11.629667, "fair_value": 6.978654, "relative_strength": 6.680707, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.992045, "energy": 25.009306, "activity_lines": [ 10.718, 10.665091, 11.037714, 11.286323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }