{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3214eb4-749e-4ce9-8b55-3a003bfe1faa", "symbol": "GENI", "name": "Genius Sports Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 91.388, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.572, "architecture_energy": 49.51, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 51.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.1, "rotation_up": 64.32, "upward_expansion": 58.16, "deceleration": 26.12, "rotation_down": 21.48, "downward_expansion": 16.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.926667, 6.658727, 6.099619, 5.848989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.59, "trend_reference": 5.969333, "distance_from_trend": 0.271499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.7775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.536533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.246305, "excess_performance": 0.120681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.271499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.411706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.390196, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.246305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.226363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63275255, "relative_activity": 2.102092, "balance": 4.226363, "dry_up": 1.250729, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130412, "annualized_volatility": 0.708423, "from_high_reference": -0.44718, "from_low_reference": 0.984314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.969333, "fair_value_reference": 7.7775, "structural_low": 3.825, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.068241, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051307, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.221154, "worst_return": 0.004138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.080219, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105769, "worst_return": -0.266207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.137877, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027171, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.415064, "worst_return": -0.13931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117045, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12312, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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5.626476, 5.695591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.48, "volume": 28055169, "typical_volume": 28531425.4, "trend": 6.201333, "fair_value": 7.771667, "relative_strength": -30.262933, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.416446, "energy": 26.612124, "activity_lines": [ 6.348667, 6.290727, 5.740667, 5.704108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.93, "volume": 39214952, "typical_volume": 28630621.6, "trend": 6.073, "fair_value": 7.768654, "relative_strength": -25.115906, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.683851, "energy": 31.493999, "activity_lines": [ 6.552, 6.429091, 5.892524, 5.751118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.59, "volume": 63275255, "typical_volume": 30101081.05, "trend": 5.969333, "fair_value": 7.7775, "relative_strength": -19.536533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.572356, "energy": 49.51028, "activity_lines": [ 6.926667, 6.658727, 6.099619, 5.848989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }